DOW cash 8149 is the line in the sand
10am hourly futures prints at 828.5/8210/1108 will define trending friday
seems recently down gaps are almost always followed by down hours
sold more call premium(870 and 900) and looking for he S&P to test 800 at the minimum assuming 813 breaks this morning
shorted an emini Naz at 1105.75
downside targets could be 775/7800/1050
Friday, December 5, 2008
trending friday ? 840-825 hourly range
do not be fooled by early strength
if trending friday is down, the hourly charts will stay under 840 and break under 825 after 2pm and finish bottom tick
778 is a possible target if somehow the 2008 low was 739 on November
if trending friday is down, the hourly charts will stay under 840 and break under 825 after 2pm and finish bottom tick
778 is a possible target if somehow the 2008 low was 739 on November
Saturday, November 22, 2008
low hour at 741.8/7465/1026.75 Trending Friday was up after all
so i was feeling ok going long as soon as the announcement of the treasury secretary
of course i kept getting out and getting longagain on the way up with the last sale at 799-797
had i believed in trending friday late day high the frustration of scalping would have gone away
at the close sold a Dec 850 call and bought an emini at 794
if the action on Friday was another small 4th wave before another 75-100 points down to 725-700, then monday's globex and regular trade better stay under 819-835 hourly
key support still around 785/780/770/758/753 and 741.80 hourly
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
otherwise a rally to much higher levels than i can even imagine is underway
in case it is "otherwise" i sold more of the inverse nazdaq 401k fund
mostly in the RUT 2000 inverse with an eye towards going all to cash by late november early december
seasonally november, december and january are strong due to tax flows and year end rebalancing that we mean demand for some stocks that are working should increase
of course i kept getting out and getting longagain on the way up with the last sale at 799-797
had i believed in trending friday late day high the frustration of scalping would have gone away
at the close sold a Dec 850 call and bought an emini at 794
if the action on Friday was another small 4th wave before another 75-100 points down to 725-700, then monday's globex and regular trade better stay under 819-835 hourly
key support still around 785/780/770/758/753 and 741.80 hourly
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
otherwise a rally to much higher levels than i can even imagine is underway
in case it is "otherwise" i sold more of the inverse nazdaq 401k fund
mostly in the RUT 2000 inverse with an eye towards going all to cash by late november early december
seasonally november, december and january are strong due to tax flows and year end rebalancing that we mean demand for some stocks that are working should increase
Friday, November 21, 2008
hmm got some of that juicy move up through 755 to 775 on Treasury news
but who cares who the secretary is next spring when the world is coming to an end on Dec 31
of course it was perfect and expected and i pounced on the news
and added on the move over 758 the Trending Friday 10am print
if the market closes over 780 i will be covering short rydex funds
of course it was perfect and expected and i pounced on the news
and added on the move over 758 the Trending Friday 10am print
if the market closes over 780 i will be covering short rydex funds
here are the wave 5 counts
780-740 nice rectangle so far. S&P expiration is over but the OEX and stocks are still trading until 4pm
on expiration day there is a possibility for the oex to trade from 375(or 365now) to 350 in the last few minutes of the day like a November 1991 i remember
if wave 3 is over now, then a rally phase should start to build over the next few trading hours
however, if seems like the 5th of the 3rd is still unfolding
here are the some others are interpreting this thrust down that began on Nov 5 at 2am and i was there
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1796251
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
on expiration day there is a possibility for the oex to trade from 375(or 365now) to 350 in the last few minutes of the day like a November 1991 i remember
if wave 3 is over now, then a rally phase should start to build over the next few trading hours
however, if seems like the 5th of the 3rd is still unfolding
here are the some others are interpreting this thrust down that began on Nov 5 at 2am and i was there
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1796251
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
10 am prints define trending friday - 758/7588/1051.50
anyone who believes they can trade this market is nuts including me
sold 769 and bought 758 (even though i was thinking 752-754 if not lower still oh well
today i have a stiff neck from waking up at 2:30am and watching the S&P top when the FTSE turned positive. at the top i went back to sleep thinking 780 was important
when i woke up at 5:50am the S&P was trading around 775 and i thought it better hold 770 which of course it did not(at least that time i sold)
the reason to think that trending friday will ultimately be up is the fact that the market has fallen to the 2002 lows where value players have got to be thinking that stocks with safe dividends are better than bonds at historically low rates (meaning that not only do you get a crappy interest payment, your principal is sure to get whacked as long term rates have to rise(?) sometime in the next decade unless we are Japan II ( i am going to start legging back into the Rydex inverse interest rate fund in my 401(k) especially if the market starts to rally. After all the portfolio re balancing is going to require bonds to be sold and stocks to be bought)
for some reason gold blew through $760 resistance when i wasn't paying attention
hate to chase but that is how they do it in commodities. GLD is a fairly unlevered way to play and trades like a stock = to 1/10th of Gold price or $78 All time high at 102 and the gold bugs would tell you 130-150 is its real value in a world that is going to print money once again to paper over the excesses of a pseudo capitalist world.
i do believe that in the old days, Indo China bought alot of gold for jewelry as a way to store wealth. this is the time of the year for that to take place except the world economies are depressed
OIL is rolling over to the downside so DIG and UNG and others are probably going lower until the S&P turns higher INT is an interesting compay that IBD has noticed recently
LIHR up 25%; PAAS up 18%, NEM up 12% DGP up 10%; KGC up 12% EGO up 9% and DBS up 6% (as silver continues to lag)
all and all it appears at 11am that trending Friday is down and targets around 7300 and 730 are starting to look tempting (after all the point and figure chart is still drawings 'o's down after breaking support at 8145 and 8000. yikes so easy unless you make it hard especially if you just trade with the trend (unfortunately i keep thinking that this down trend is basically done (unless another 15-25% quick drop is in the cards into the monthend month beginning redemptions and bad economic news)
buying a small emini naz on the next new low since i have the short 401(k) naz fund that i want to try and time out of at the lows of the trend
sold 769 and bought 758 (even though i was thinking 752-754 if not lower still oh well
today i have a stiff neck from waking up at 2:30am and watching the S&P top when the FTSE turned positive. at the top i went back to sleep thinking 780 was important
when i woke up at 5:50am the S&P was trading around 775 and i thought it better hold 770 which of course it did not(at least that time i sold)
the reason to think that trending friday will ultimately be up is the fact that the market has fallen to the 2002 lows where value players have got to be thinking that stocks with safe dividends are better than bonds at historically low rates (meaning that not only do you get a crappy interest payment, your principal is sure to get whacked as long term rates have to rise(?) sometime in the next decade unless we are Japan II ( i am going to start legging back into the Rydex inverse interest rate fund in my 401(k) especially if the market starts to rally. After all the portfolio re balancing is going to require bonds to be sold and stocks to be bought)
for some reason gold blew through $760 resistance when i wasn't paying attention
hate to chase but that is how they do it in commodities. GLD is a fairly unlevered way to play and trades like a stock = to 1/10th of Gold price or $78 All time high at 102 and the gold bugs would tell you 130-150 is its real value in a world that is going to print money once again to paper over the excesses of a pseudo capitalist world.
i do believe that in the old days, Indo China bought alot of gold for jewelry as a way to store wealth. this is the time of the year for that to take place except the world economies are depressed
OIL is rolling over to the downside so DIG and UNG and others are probably going lower until the S&P turns higher INT is an interesting compay that IBD has noticed recently
LIHR up 25%; PAAS up 18%, NEM up 12% DGP up 10%; KGC up 12% EGO up 9% and DBS up 6% (as silver continues to lag)
all and all it appears at 11am that trending Friday is down and targets around 7300 and 730 are starting to look tempting (after all the point and figure chart is still drawings 'o's down after breaking support at 8145 and 8000. yikes so easy unless you make it hard especially if you just trade with the trend (unfortunately i keep thinking that this down trend is basically done (unless another 15-25% quick drop is in the cards into the monthend month beginning redemptions and bad economic news)
buying a small emini naz on the next new low since i have the short 401(k) naz fund that i want to try and time out of at the lows of the trend
Gap and Crap or Gap and Go - Trending Friday will tell us early
and after 2pm you have to go with the move either way
down week down month Up day? - which event seems out of place - could be tight range trendless morning with fireworks this afternoon
downside targets at 773-807 were reached and over run suggesting either my count is wrong (ie ending a 3rd wave down from Aug 12) or the count is fine since a 300 point S&P move from the Obamanation high at 1003.2(1008.5 globex) matches the first leg down from 1576 - 1276 (jan low) (that is 700 is a better target than 748)
By the way if the 3 wave down move this year is some sort of correction in a long term bull market (ie big wave iv), then stocks are going to be the right asset class for the next 5 years before the final crash of civilization in 2012-2015
if you want to solve social security now would be the time to start letting folks buy stocks?
Gold nicely regaining the $760 area we will see if the price can finally be sustained DGP, EGO, KGC
sold all my bearish futures positions yesterday between 3:30pm and 4:15pm close (if only i did not touch them until the close i would have made a few grand more aaaaargh)
the crazy market yesterday was the 30 yr bond which rallied 8 points from 122 to 130 unheard of as interest rates dove under 4% for 30 years and 2% for 5 yrs and 1% for 2yr.
I wish i could better explain how buying government lease payments can give the investor a better yield for a similar risk.. However like a 5 yr bank CD, once the payments are bought by the investor, the ease of resale is limited (but not impossible) (of course only someone who has enough wealth to have a multi million dollar bond portfolio could be qualified)
(my other idea is to pay for someone's balance sheet to back stop the small possibility that the equipment is returned early and can't be resold)
Oil back over $50 and I saw a show on Bloomberg that showed heating oil has outperformed in the energy class and it is freezing on the east coast. maybe buy a call spread? since the futures is $400 per 1 cent move (geez i was so smart i was going long at 2.25 and 2 (making 10 cents) while the market trend was actually down 50 cents
DIG is a bullish ETF if you want to have easy exposure that can be sold if oil heads to $35-38 before going to $80 again. DUG is bearish
WMZ pays a high dividend and Kramer touted it
UNG still under pressure but Nat GAS has a possible bullish pattern with quick moves holding over $6.74 and 7.24
EBS better close near the highs of the week and i will be piling on or else dumping out
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,DGP,DIG,EMS,INT,KGC,wmz,QCOR,OSIR,UNG|C
down week down month Up day? - which event seems out of place - could be tight range trendless morning with fireworks this afternoon
downside targets at 773-807 were reached and over run suggesting either my count is wrong (ie ending a 3rd wave down from Aug 12) or the count is fine since a 300 point S&P move from the Obamanation high at 1003.2(1008.5 globex) matches the first leg down from 1576 - 1276 (jan low) (that is 700 is a better target than 748)
By the way if the 3 wave down move this year is some sort of correction in a long term bull market (ie big wave iv), then stocks are going to be the right asset class for the next 5 years before the final crash of civilization in 2012-2015
if you want to solve social security now would be the time to start letting folks buy stocks?
Gold nicely regaining the $760 area we will see if the price can finally be sustained DGP, EGO, KGC
sold all my bearish futures positions yesterday between 3:30pm and 4:15pm close (if only i did not touch them until the close i would have made a few grand more aaaaargh)
the crazy market yesterday was the 30 yr bond which rallied 8 points from 122 to 130 unheard of as interest rates dove under 4% for 30 years and 2% for 5 yrs and 1% for 2yr.
I wish i could better explain how buying government lease payments can give the investor a better yield for a similar risk.. However like a 5 yr bank CD, once the payments are bought by the investor, the ease of resale is limited (but not impossible) (of course only someone who has enough wealth to have a multi million dollar bond portfolio could be qualified)
(my other idea is to pay for someone's balance sheet to back stop the small possibility that the equipment is returned early and can't be resold)
Oil back over $50 and I saw a show on Bloomberg that showed heating oil has outperformed in the energy class and it is freezing on the east coast. maybe buy a call spread? since the futures is $400 per 1 cent move (geez i was so smart i was going long at 2.25 and 2 (making 10 cents) while the market trend was actually down 50 cents
DIG is a bullish ETF if you want to have easy exposure that can be sold if oil heads to $35-38 before going to $80 again. DUG is bearish
WMZ pays a high dividend and Kramer touted it
UNG still under pressure but Nat GAS has a possible bullish pattern with quick moves holding over $6.74 and 7.24
EBS better close near the highs of the week and i will be piling on or else dumping out
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,DGP,DIG,EMS,INT,KGC,wmz,QCOR,OSIR,UNG|C
Thursday, November 20, 2008
after 3pm today should be very interesting - 780/7800/1063.25 10am prints
ok
traded a future against the short 785 put for 10 points $2500 and a DOW from 7850 to 7790 for $600
at 10am the market dove on the Philly Fed report
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2008/bos1008.cfm
however the S&P has reached the target area for a wave v of 3 between 773(or735 or 600) and 807
so most of the money has been made for now and the 11am hour looks up
key resistance back at 837 low print from 10/10
the only problem is the Congress bashing of Freddie and Fannie and the Auto industry has scared the retail investor out of the market
good day to swim at lunch and come back for either straight up (or much further down a 100 point range targets 715!)
on the stock front
EBS gaps down again and we will see soon
if the market turns higher from here, then EBS should be a big buy
else sell
Nat Gas report very bearish so UNG down near its lows
Gold and Oil continue to confound the bulls however the gold Stocks may turn if the whole market turns DGP KGC and EGO
it seems as if the tech stocks are trying to provide some leadership? maybe they are just so very oversold VMW an interesting Energy saving cost saving software package near all time lows
CPSI a health care software package likely to get a boost in the Obamanation
ASEI the homeland security technology leader OSIR stem cell
traded a future against the short 785 put for 10 points $2500 and a DOW from 7850 to 7790 for $600
at 10am the market dove on the Philly Fed report
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2008/bos1008.cfm
however the S&P has reached the target area for a wave v of 3 between 773(or735 or 600) and 807
so most of the money has been made for now and the 11am hour looks up
key resistance back at 837 low print from 10/10
the only problem is the Congress bashing of Freddie and Fannie and the Auto industry has scared the retail investor out of the market
good day to swim at lunch and come back for either straight up (or much further down a 100 point range targets 715!)
on the stock front
EBS gaps down again and we will see soon
if the market turns higher from here, then EBS should be a big buy
else sell
Nat Gas report very bearish so UNG down near its lows
Gold and Oil continue to confound the bulls however the gold Stocks may turn if the whole market turns DGP KGC and EGO
it seems as if the tech stocks are trying to provide some leadership? maybe they are just so very oversold VMW an interesting Energy saving cost saving software package near all time lows
CPSI a health care software package likely to get a boost in the Obamanation
ASEI the homeland security technology leader OSIR stem cell
once again the Dow cash is off the bottom of my graph paper
on october 10th and Oct 27th the DOW cash hourly bottomed at 8076 and 8006
yesterday 's close at 7997 and today's 10am print at 78xx clearly continues the break out of the triangle to the downside
if today is consolidation thursday, then a range should be established by 11:30am
i am thinking 7625 cash as the target which is 1400 points below he obama high at 9025
(wave 1 of wave 3 seems to be 11835 to 10434 )
decided that i had to get shorter as the S&P broke 800 so I sold a DEC 900 call for $6600
also i redeployed cash in the 401(k) into the bearish Russell 2000 since small stocks are bound to have more trouble than big companies
Philly FED report at 10am and the DOW is under 7850 (7888 was the print low and now all indices
yesterday 's close at 7997 and today's 10am print at 78xx clearly continues the break out of the triangle to the downside
if today is consolidation thursday, then a range should be established by 11:30am
i am thinking 7625 cash as the target which is 1400 points below he obama high at 9025
(wave 1 of wave 3 seems to be 11835 to 10434 )
decided that i had to get shorter as the S&P broke 800 so I sold a DEC 900 call for $6600
also i redeployed cash in the 401(k) into the bearish Russell 2000 since small stocks are bound to have more trouble than big companies
Philly FED report at 10am and the DOW is under 7850 (7888 was the print low and now all indices
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
hmm 5th wave from 918 is supposed to be 99/111 or 140 points long
well
i said i was going to be bearish from 855 to 807 and bearly accomplished the task
now that the S&P has fallen to new lows on a closing, print and hourly basis, I have to start believing that either it is the end of the 3rd wave down from the Obama election (1003.2 hrly 1008.5 print) and a rally back towards 1130 over the next few months is coming
or
this decline from 1008 has to unfold to 758 or 608
for now i got out of some shorts and hope i am right
i said i was going to be bearish from 855 to 807 and bearly accomplished the task
now that the S&P has fallen to new lows on a closing, print and hourly basis, I have to start believing that either it is the end of the 3rd wave down from the Obama election (1003.2 hrly 1008.5 print) and a rally back towards 1130 over the next few months is coming
or
this decline from 1008 has to unfold to 758 or 608
for now i got out of some shorts and hope i am right
90 minutes left and S&P below 835 and holds 819
the s&p has tried to break lower but of course it is now bouncing back over the 826 low hour posted at 2pm
i am trying to get shorter by selling november calls?? or december calls so that is another sure sign that the rally is about to take off
needless to say, the dollar rallied and gold and oil fell again
thinking it is time to quit
i am trying to get shorter by selling november calls?? or december calls so that is another sure sign that the rally is about to take off
needless to say, the dollar rallied and gold and oil fell again
thinking it is time to quit
seems like 835 Dec futures is the line in the sand -856-870 resistance 2pm Fed minutes
if somehow it is short squeeze wednesday, then the S&P will bottom above yesterday's low hour at 830.5 and easily clear resistance around 866 by the close
perfect for a november short squeeze to screw the put buyers
however, the S&P is clearly stuck in a much lower range then any other recent time since the October 10th recognition wave down to 888 close 837 print low !!! (we are at 840 and early in he day 11:15am is a key time with down hours following the first down hours)
for now i closed the short Nov call at a nice profit (did not want to risk a 100 point BS rally)
and am now long an emini from 839 against the Dec 840/785 Bearish spread wondering why
This morning the Dollar has been looking weak just like our political system after 5 months straight up. Could be time for a turn at year end when the really really big boys put on thei bg long term strategies
would you want to own a "piece" of the revenue stream of a Congress ready to save ever failure by bilking the "very" successful (ie folks who make more than they spend)
after 2pm today either the waterfalls below 835 will have me buying a put of some ilk or more muddled in the middle of the 840-860 inside range (830.50-869.50(888 10/10 close key))
On the Stock front, the falling dollar has boosted Oil and gold and as I mentioned yesterday the GLD and SLV ETF's are outperforming all other indices on a relative basis. the whore house is whispering yes this is the place to be for the next 3 yrs as the government spends our childrens' wealth. If so having an accumulation plan is the way to go with the DGP and DBS double bull bets used occassionally (wave 3's)
If the stock market is going to rally, than gold stocks could also be considered as a very levered play on the price of Gold. *ie just cause gold goes up does not mean the management of the gold company can take advantage of it KGC and EGO and CEF have been my favorites
EBS hanging at $20 and if the stock indices turn up than this IBD favorite is sure to pop to the $28 double from the prior low
UNG creeping up with the price of Nat Gas . However Nat Gas needs to close back over $7.30 to be in a raging bull up move and that is still away from $6.64
not much else as the markets continue to fall to lower lows on the day
Put Call opened at 1.70 (now 1.40 which is supposed to be bullish 9except when it means the big boys are loading up for a November mini crash that starts this week and ends in early december below 750 Vix index at 70 which suggests fear is rising as the global investor is continuing to understand that the "governments" can stop a natural process that the governments have prevented since the late 60's and early 70's with FIAT currency and global trade where the US sends paper to China(and Canada and the Middle East of course) and China(and the rest ) sends us real stuff that we consume
perfect for a november short squeeze to screw the put buyers
however, the S&P is clearly stuck in a much lower range then any other recent time since the October 10th recognition wave down to 888 close 837 print low !!! (we are at 840 and early in he day 11:15am is a key time with down hours following the first down hours)
for now i closed the short Nov call at a nice profit (did not want to risk a 100 point BS rally)
and am now long an emini from 839 against the Dec 840/785 Bearish spread wondering why
This morning the Dollar has been looking weak just like our political system after 5 months straight up. Could be time for a turn at year end when the really really big boys put on thei bg long term strategies
would you want to own a "piece" of the revenue stream of a Congress ready to save ever failure by bilking the "very" successful (ie folks who make more than they spend)
after 2pm today either the waterfalls below 835 will have me buying a put of some ilk or more muddled in the middle of the 840-860 inside range (830.50-869.50(888 10/10 close key))
On the Stock front, the falling dollar has boosted Oil and gold and as I mentioned yesterday the GLD and SLV ETF's are outperforming all other indices on a relative basis. the whore house is whispering yes this is the place to be for the next 3 yrs as the government spends our childrens' wealth. If so having an accumulation plan is the way to go with the DGP and DBS double bull bets used occassionally (wave 3's)
If the stock market is going to rally, than gold stocks could also be considered as a very levered play on the price of Gold. *ie just cause gold goes up does not mean the management of the gold company can take advantage of it KGC and EGO and CEF have been my favorites
EBS hanging at $20 and if the stock indices turn up than this IBD favorite is sure to pop to the $28 double from the prior low
UNG creeping up with the price of Nat Gas . However Nat Gas needs to close back over $7.30 to be in a raging bull up move and that is still away from $6.64
not much else as the markets continue to fall to lower lows on the day
Put Call opened at 1.70 (now 1.40 which is supposed to be bullish 9except when it means the big boys are loading up for a November mini crash that starts this week and ends in early december below 750 Vix index at 70 which suggests fear is rising as the global investor is continuing to understand that the "governments" can stop a natural process that the governments have prevented since the late 60's and early 70's with FIAT currency and global trade where the US sends paper to China(and Canada and the Middle East of course) and China(and the rest ) sends us real stuff that we consume
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
late day rally dow well over 8300 but S&P at 860
still a possibility that today's late day rally is a small 'c' wave of a 2nd wave of a 3rd wave down with 847.50 and 835 and 825 futures the breakdown levels and 881 the wave 1 beginning point
resistance at the 86950 high hour yesterday lines up with a 78% retracement of the decline from 881 to 824
fortunately traded long eminis and dows futures most of the way up from 835/.8280 to 860/8440
EBS traded strong into the close and I tried to get a late day buy off but was 15 seconds late
watch tomorrow for closes over $21 to get this market leader running again
OSIR and QCOR and ABT in the bio sector
ASEI holding over $70 with a $93 Point & Figure target
over the past 30 trading sessions gold and silver have been relatively strong
DGP and DBS Are the double long ETF's to trade when Gold closes over $760 and Silver over $10.64
resistance at the 86950 high hour yesterday lines up with a 78% retracement of the decline from 881 to 824
fortunately traded long eminis and dows futures most of the way up from 835/.8280 to 860/8440
EBS traded strong into the close and I tried to get a late day buy off but was 15 seconds late
watch tomorrow for closes over $21 to get this market leader running again
OSIR and QCOR and ABT in the bio sector
ASEI holding over $70 with a $93 Point & Figure target
over the past 30 trading sessions gold and silver have been relatively strong
DGP and DBS Are the double long ETF's to trade when Gold closes over $760 and Silver over $10.64
uh oh - 835 at 3pm standing on the edge of the abyss again
a few times this year i have had these feelings that certain price levels have released a volume of sellers
round numbers on the way down tried to hold like 1300 and 1200 then 1000 but then gave way to lower levels each time
it seems after 5 weeks sideways at 840-1000, the S&P is ready to see if there will be a volume of selling under 840
for now, i bought an emini at 835.50 against the Put spread and Nov 935 call sold at 7.4 looking under 3 on its way to 0
looking for a late day attempt to Turnaround tuesday again from this key close at 834.7 on oct 27
if yes, then another 10% lower yields 750 the area where the 2002 rally and a decent target
if no, then lets assume another slingshot higher on "good news?" with 1000 and 1200 round numbers targets for the 1st quarter rally once Obama gets his hands on the PPT for his good comparisons to FDR
round numbers on the way down tried to hold like 1300 and 1200 then 1000 but then gave way to lower levels each time
it seems after 5 weeks sideways at 840-1000, the S&P is ready to see if there will be a volume of selling under 840
for now, i bought an emini at 835.50 against the Put spread and Nov 935 call sold at 7.4 looking under 3 on its way to 0
looking for a late day attempt to Turnaround tuesday again from this key close at 834.7 on oct 27
if yes, then another 10% lower yields 750 the area where the 2002 rally and a decent target
if no, then lets assume another slingshot higher on "good news?" with 1000 and 1200 round numbers targets for the 1st quarter rally once Obama gets his hands on the PPT for his good comparisons to FDR
1pm and finally a down hour NAZ is the weakest?? hmmm
Gee the HP news was supposed to give the NAZDAQ the shot in the arm to lead us higher but something happened in the past hour as the NDX has fallen from a high at 1160.50 to 1145 (under the 10am print at 1149.75)
the S&P has also turned negative well back under 860 while the DOW is slightly over the 8300 cash key
get ready for a third wave down if the count is right 845 cash is crucial
still a bit early for hard selling since it is lunch time but after 2pm watch out
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
the S&P has also turned negative well back under 860 while the DOW is slightly over the 8300 cash key
get ready for a third wave down if the count is right 845 cash is crucial
still a bit early for hard selling since it is lunch time but after 2pm watch out
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
turnaround tuesday defined by 847.5-869.5/8240-8440
10 am print has so far provided a base for higher above the key 855 and 840 supports on a rectangular formation with the possibility of another fling higher in an expiration related bs move
11am up hours at 853/8340/1155 suggest that Turnaround still on hold with higher prices up as high as 888-903 still possible in the primary count
the primary count still holds out for straight down from 918 to 819-770 is ongoing for another few days with 840 cash key
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67036679]&disp=O
government hearings on TV all day and the S&P is still range bound . selling the government officials has been a successful strategy since mid september
the Put Call ratio is showing little fear even though the market is just a few percent from decade lows???
people are so stunned that the next 25% (200 S&P points yikes)down will be easy to do as the professionals are awaiting that puke out in early December when the sellers for 2008 are forced by the calendar to sell them even when they are down. new moon low and then the Employment report before the up expiration/year end rally
recent late day sell offs suggest a buyers strike and a vacuum just under the 825-840 price area
DOW 8300 seems key and S&P 860.
on the stock front
EBS keeps trying to claw back over $20-21 resistance where a pop to $28 would be no surprise
UNG creeping higher as energy prices seem to be stable in advance of the winter's advance
the Biotech/health stocks are all down with the rest of the market wih ABT, CBST, EMS, MYGN,QCOR
other consumer product companies PETS, RAH, WTR, UST where a recession won't necessarily slow these companies down
11am up hours at 853/8340/1155 suggest that Turnaround still on hold with higher prices up as high as 888-903 still possible in the primary count
the primary count still holds out for straight down from 918 to 819-770 is ongoing for another few days with 840 cash key
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67036679]&disp=O
government hearings on TV all day and the S&P is still range bound . selling the government officials has been a successful strategy since mid september
the Put Call ratio is showing little fear even though the market is just a few percent from decade lows???
people are so stunned that the next 25% (200 S&P points yikes)down will be easy to do as the professionals are awaiting that puke out in early December when the sellers for 2008 are forced by the calendar to sell them even when they are down. new moon low and then the Employment report before the up expiration/year end rally
recent late day sell offs suggest a buyers strike and a vacuum just under the 825-840 price area
DOW 8300 seems key and S&P 860.
on the stock front
EBS keeps trying to claw back over $20-21 resistance where a pop to $28 would be no surprise
UNG creeping higher as energy prices seem to be stable in advance of the winter's advance
the Biotech/health stocks are all down with the rest of the market wih ABT, CBST, EMS, MYGN,QCOR
other consumer product companies PETS, RAH, WTR, UST where a recession won't necessarily slow these companies down
turnaround tues - expiration week rally
the globex trade overnight fell below the key 840 cash and then rallied strongly on earnings from hp
oil and gold also trying to catch a bid
sold dow futres at 8250 and bought 8130
still short a nov 935 call hoping to go to zero from 7.4
bought a dec 840 put and sold 785 put for a cost of 20(5000) at yesterday's close looking for the 5th wave down to get below 815
tried to buy eminis at 841 but too slow
if the 1st hour looks strong, thinking time to cover more 401k shorts
on the stock front the tech sector clearly will be the feature of the day
watch put call ratio to see if people are selling or buying the early rally
if the last hour stays strong then time for a rally back to 900
oil and gold also trying to catch a bid
sold dow futres at 8250 and bought 8130
still short a nov 935 call hoping to go to zero from 7.4
bought a dec 840 put and sold 785 put for a cost of 20(5000) at yesterday's close looking for the 5th wave down to get below 815
tried to buy eminis at 841 but too slow
if the 1st hour looks strong, thinking time to cover more 401k shorts
on the stock front the tech sector clearly will be the feature of the day
watch put call ratio to see if people are selling or buying the early rally
if the last hour stays strong then time for a rally back to 900
Monday, November 17, 2008
friday's late day sell off closes at key support 860.50-866
overnight the S&P tried to rally until the FTSE market opened
now the S&P is pressing below 855 which was a crucial level in October
the low hour is now 819.5
my primary count was looking for one more 99-150 S&P point down move starting from 918(907 hourly) to complete the 5th wave down of the 3rd wave down
if friday's late decline from 918- 850 is wave i of 5(november 4 2008) of III(September 652008) of A(Oct 2007), then today should be a ii wave with 903 a 78% retracement and884 a 50% retracement)
(so far the overnight rally from 850-875 could be 'a' of ii, then this morning's wekaness is wave 'b' of ii (and should not under cut 850 by much), then a wave 'c' up towards 888 would be a perfect pattern with 1pm high today (or 11am high tomorrow on turnaround tuesday up to down?)
current long an emini from 897 and short a Nov 935 call from 7.4. hoping for a grind higher into a close on friday around 925-940
a typical options expiration week should have a low early to trap the put buyers and then a higher move into this friday. so far this week is not acting quite right unless the S&P can sustain prices over 866-876
on the Stock front, nothing looks very good however i will continue to look for relative performers to take long shots
now the S&P is pressing below 855 which was a crucial level in October
the low hour is now 819.5
my primary count was looking for one more 99-150 S&P point down move starting from 918(907 hourly) to complete the 5th wave down of the 3rd wave down
if friday's late decline from 918- 850 is wave i of 5(november 4 2008) of III(September 652008) of A(Oct 2007), then today should be a ii wave with 903 a 78% retracement and884 a 50% retracement)
(so far the overnight rally from 850-875 could be 'a' of ii, then this morning's wekaness is wave 'b' of ii (and should not under cut 850 by much), then a wave 'c' up towards 888 would be a perfect pattern with 1pm high today (or 11am high tomorrow on turnaround tuesday up to down?)
current long an emini from 897 and short a Nov 935 call from 7.4. hoping for a grind higher into a close on friday around 925-940
a typical options expiration week should have a low early to trap the put buyers and then a higher move into this friday. so far this week is not acting quite right unless the S&P can sustain prices over 866-876
on the Stock front, nothing looks very good however i will continue to look for relative performers to take long shots
Friday, November 14, 2008
retail sales horrible and the market stays near support 880-897
if trending friday is somehow up, they key breakout areas around 882 better hold early and 895.5-897 resistance become support through lunch time
10am is a good time to consider a sell especially if the S&P can not get above 895.5-899
otherwise, yesterday could have been a wave iv and a lower low under 819.5/7960/1115 hourly low is the place to get bullish again for another brief rally into expiration Friday
(the DOW cash low is now 8006 with the prior low at 8076)
the overnight globex looks like a flag which has support around 888(the 10/1008 closing price) and resistance at 900ish)
a bullish breakout over 900 could eventually lead to a 45 point rally from the morning low to finish a 5 wave rally from yesterday's lows ( a perfect trending friday holds sideways and starts to creep higher into 2pm and then explodes higher in the last 90-120 minutes of trading)
i have tried a couple long side trades overnight against the short call and ended up with small losses
currently long from 893
on the stock front ASEI has been featured 2 days in a row at investors business daily
one lesson from the past, if it can't go down, it will go up
10am is a good time to consider a sell especially if the S&P can not get above 895.5-899
otherwise, yesterday could have been a wave iv and a lower low under 819.5/7960/1115 hourly low is the place to get bullish again for another brief rally into expiration Friday
(the DOW cash low is now 8006 with the prior low at 8076)
the overnight globex looks like a flag which has support around 888(the 10/1008 closing price) and resistance at 900ish)
a bullish breakout over 900 could eventually lead to a 45 point rally from the morning low to finish a 5 wave rally from yesterday's lows ( a perfect trending friday holds sideways and starts to creep higher into 2pm and then explodes higher in the last 90-120 minutes of trading)
i have tried a couple long side trades overnight against the short call and ended up with small losses
currently long from 893
on the stock front ASEI has been featured 2 days in a row at investors business daily
one lesson from the past, if it can't go down, it will go up
Thursday, November 13, 2008
either triangle still in play 980 max pain or wave iv of 3of V
well
here is a picture of what i have been thinking is unfolding
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
today I was at vendor presentation at Bethesda Navy Medical Center for 6 pharmacists and the Ft Detrick Army program manager who evaluates ALL the new technology going into Army pharmacies.
he said " I do not usually travel for vendor demo's"
this company has got a product that looks like a sole source lease item for sure.
next up Walter Reed Army hospital.
As I was driving back at 1:30pm, I found out that the S&P had broken the 835 and 825 lows of 2008 and then reversed back over the 855-867 swing point from October
this feels like the expiration week rally that should now grind higher all next week into an ending diagonal between 880 and 940
so i had to jump on the long side a few times with a single emini long at 855 875 892 and 900 flat at 904.5
near the end of the day i resold a naked DEC 960 call for 26.6 (closed at 32)
tomorrow the S&P has Trending Friday news at 8:30am Retail Sales and Export Prices. the news has got to be horrible and either the S&P starts down and finishes bottom tick headed for 767 or the S&P easily closes over 914-918 swing point and off to the races (937)
overnight the Globex is down 10 points with 1st support at 897 and second support 880.
overlapping 860.5 will start to look like wave v down of wave 3 is headed to 99-140 points under 913=814-773 bingo October 8, 2002 low Dan
on the stock front, EBS sold off hard but closed near $20. further rally has to be a further accumulate on this IBD favorite with $21.xx close another bullish signal
(otherwise it is a dump until $12.5-$15 base retested)
lots of stocks reversed 10% or more and tomorrow will tell the tale on the weekly charts
ABT/CBST/OSIR/QCOM/MYGN are my favorite bio/health stocks that need to get going or dump
ASEI getting good press and looking like abreakout over $70 could lead to $90 (although i have to be moderate in this position)
clearly they turned the Oil stocks for at least one day - UPL and UNG are my favorites but not that excited about oil quite yet. WMZ pays a nice dividend and is a Kramer favorite. LG seems really strong but do not know much else
we need to have a heating oil shortage first with a deep freeze on the Northeast. so far that has not happened
same thing with Gold stocks. not sure if i trust the move yet but KGC and EGO are ones i have bought in the past (at much higher prices and thankfully sold)
INT made a huge leap higher after catching my attention a few days ago.
ZEP???
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,abt,CBST,osir,INT,mygn,LG,QCOR,asei,upl|E
here is a picture of what i have been thinking is unfolding
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
today I was at vendor presentation at Bethesda Navy Medical Center for 6 pharmacists and the Ft Detrick Army program manager who evaluates ALL the new technology going into Army pharmacies.
he said " I do not usually travel for vendor demo's"
this company has got a product that looks like a sole source lease item for sure.
next up Walter Reed Army hospital.
As I was driving back at 1:30pm, I found out that the S&P had broken the 835 and 825 lows of 2008 and then reversed back over the 855-867 swing point from October
this feels like the expiration week rally that should now grind higher all next week into an ending diagonal between 880 and 940
so i had to jump on the long side a few times with a single emini long at 855 875 892 and 900 flat at 904.5
near the end of the day i resold a naked DEC 960 call for 26.6 (closed at 32)
tomorrow the S&P has Trending Friday news at 8:30am Retail Sales and Export Prices. the news has got to be horrible and either the S&P starts down and finishes bottom tick headed for 767 or the S&P easily closes over 914-918 swing point and off to the races (937)
overnight the Globex is down 10 points with 1st support at 897 and second support 880.
overlapping 860.5 will start to look like wave v down of wave 3 is headed to 99-140 points under 913=814-773 bingo October 8, 2002 low Dan
on the stock front, EBS sold off hard but closed near $20. further rally has to be a further accumulate on this IBD favorite with $21.xx close another bullish signal
(otherwise it is a dump until $12.5-$15 base retested)
lots of stocks reversed 10% or more and tomorrow will tell the tale on the weekly charts
ABT/CBST/OSIR/QCOM/MYGN are my favorite bio/health stocks that need to get going or dump
ASEI getting good press and looking like abreakout over $70 could lead to $90 (although i have to be moderate in this position)
clearly they turned the Oil stocks for at least one day - UPL and UNG are my favorites but not that excited about oil quite yet. WMZ pays a nice dividend and is a Kramer favorite. LG seems really strong but do not know much else
we need to have a heating oil shortage first with a deep freeze on the Northeast. so far that has not happened
same thing with Gold stocks. not sure if i trust the move yet but KGC and EGO are ones i have bought in the past (at much higher prices and thankfully sold)
INT made a huge leap higher after catching my attention a few days ago.
ZEP???
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,abt,CBST,osir,INT,mygn,LG,QCOR,asei,upl|E
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
881.5/8530/1206.25 great place for a rally to begin
if it is short squeeze wednesday somehow, then selling 10am at 881.50 and buying 2 at 87x is the trade(between 10:30am and 10:45am exhaustion low and reversal over 881.5 necessary) i was thinking 871.3 was the spot we will see since i already went long at 888 against short call and long put
below 875 and it looks more like a 3rd wave down at some degree since the S&P has trapped bulls at the close by gapping down to low levels two days in a row
right now I am still thinking a wave 1 from 1008.50 to 905.5, and now a wave 3 unfolding with wave i perhaps still in progress from 962.5 headed to 851-815 over the next few days(or hours) to set up an expiration week low, then a rally back towards 940 key resistance area
914 is history and only trading easily through that resistance between 911 and 918 will make me change my mind about what is going on
on the stock front most everything is down
including oil stocks. so i am taking a position in DUG at 41 hoping for 86 again ( i had been long from 25 and sold 40 months ago and did not rebuy the dip to 33 that i saw)
i also bought a bit more EBS as $20 looks okay for now and clearly a momentum play in a down market
bought AVAV at 33 with a quick eye at the exits. however i am thinking that a president Elect obama will like how cool it is to use unmanned surveillance and killing machines
the STEM cell stocks are looking bad today except OSIR
S&P dropping below 870 looking deadly now
thinking roll down the put strike price from 840 to 815?
below 875 and it looks more like a 3rd wave down at some degree since the S&P has trapped bulls at the close by gapping down to low levels two days in a row
right now I am still thinking a wave 1 from 1008.50 to 905.5, and now a wave 3 unfolding with wave i perhaps still in progress from 962.5 headed to 851-815 over the next few days(or hours) to set up an expiration week low, then a rally back towards 940 key resistance area
914 is history and only trading easily through that resistance between 911 and 918 will make me change my mind about what is going on
on the stock front most everything is down
including oil stocks. so i am taking a position in DUG at 41 hoping for 86 again ( i had been long from 25 and sold 40 months ago and did not rebuy the dip to 33 that i saw)
i also bought a bit more EBS as $20 looks okay for now and clearly a momentum play in a down market
bought AVAV at 33 with a quick eye at the exits. however i am thinking that a president Elect obama will like how cool it is to use unmanned surveillance and killing machines
the STEM cell stocks are looking bad today except OSIR
S&P dropping below 870 looking deadly now
thinking roll down the put strike price from 840 to 815?
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
the Clash - Should I stay or should I go now - the day traders dilemma
got stopped out of the short dow at 8570 to book a nice profit (and now the DOW back over the 10am print at 8600(while the S&P is slightly shy of 891.75 and NDX at 1217.50 )
so for all the morning drama. they are having a hard time budging the S&P far from 888 (4 points either side for a few half hours)
after 2pm we will surely know the answer. acceleration to 834 hourly or back into the triangle
flat the DOW and short 2 calls and long 1 put looking good on any dive under the 2008 low at 825
Darling you gotta let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
If you say that you are mine
I'll be here 'til the end of time
So you got to let know
Should I stay or should I go?
Always tease tease tease
Siempre - coqetiando y enganyando
You're happy when I'm on my knees
Me arrodilla y estas feliz
One day is fine, next is black
Un dias bien el otro negro
So if you want me off your back
Al rededar en tu espalda
Well come on and let me know
Me tienes que desir
Should I Stay or should I go?
Me debo ir o que darme
Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
An' if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
so for all the morning drama. they are having a hard time budging the S&P far from 888 (4 points either side for a few half hours)
after 2pm we will surely know the answer. acceleration to 834 hourly or back into the triangle
flat the DOW and short 2 calls and long 1 put looking good on any dive under the 2008 low at 825
Darling you gotta let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
If you say that you are mine
I'll be here 'til the end of time
So you got to let know
Should I stay or should I go?
Always tease tease tease
Siempre - coqetiando y enganyando
You're happy when I'm on my knees
Me arrodilla y estas feliz
One day is fine, next is black
Un dias bien el otro negro
So if you want me off your back
Al rededar en tu espalda
Well come on and let me know
Me tienes que desir
Should I Stay or should I go?
Me debo ir o que darme
Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
An' if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
891.8/8600/1217.75 define turnaround tuesday down to up - wave iii of 1 of V of A??
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
trading segments in the S&P seem to be about 37 points long, so this morning's decline from 927 globex at 921.5 hourly could be over. (in te old days, getting 10-15 point segments was all there was)
However, a 3rd wave with a gap opening should be given the benefit of the doubt with a possibility that wave 1 was 1003.8 to 904.5(1008.5-897) and then wave 3 could be a multiple of 99 or 111. from the high at 962.5 yesterday morning's globex trap. (940 hourly high could have to subtract 22.5 from the targets below)
1.382 times 111(99)= 962.5-153.4(138)= 809.1(824.5)
1.5 times 111(99) = 962.5-166.5(150) = 796(812)
1.618 times 111(99) = 962.5-179.6(160)=752.9(802.5)
we will see. for the time being i sold a Nov 940 call on yeterday for 51 and a Nov 980 call last week at 16 and bought a Nov 840 put for 14.
late yesterday I sold a dow future at 8840 and looking to take profits around 8500
seeing as how beared up I am, I have to be aware that the alternate count would have the S&P still in a triangle with another pop to 975 possible and 1080 improbably
on the stock front, pretty much everything is down a few percent after a nice rally yesterday
however GERN is holding over $4.5 and EBS just under $20. CBST looking like an add over $27
OSIR looking like an add over $20
UNG was mentioned on Fast Money and of course is down today with Oil and Nat Gas both falling. However Nat Gas over $7 and then over $7.3 will look bullish indeed
ASEI up $7 on good earnings oh well i sold it at $63 a few days ago sincel i could not chance it after Obama won. this high at $70+- could be it. if it keeps rallying i will be accumulating again
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?GERN,OSIR,STEM,CUR,EBS,QCOR,MYGN,CBST,ung,asei|C
at 11am it looks like the hourly print will be sideways with a slight under cut of 888 (which happens to be the closing futures price on 10/10/2008 when many declared a capitulation bottom
hold short and scalp on weakness under 891(?) - with 855 a wonderful priceto buy in October
trading segments in the S&P seem to be about 37 points long, so this morning's decline from 927 globex at 921.5 hourly could be over. (in te old days, getting 10-15 point segments was all there was)
However, a 3rd wave with a gap opening should be given the benefit of the doubt with a possibility that wave 1 was 1003.8 to 904.5(1008.5-897) and then wave 3 could be a multiple of 99 or 111. from the high at 962.5 yesterday morning's globex trap. (940 hourly high could have to subtract 22.5 from the targets below)
1.382 times 111(99)= 962.5-153.4(138)= 809.1(824.5)
1.5 times 111(99) = 962.5-166.5(150) = 796(812)
1.618 times 111(99) = 962.5-179.6(160)=752.9(802.5)
we will see. for the time being i sold a Nov 940 call on yeterday for 51 and a Nov 980 call last week at 16 and bought a Nov 840 put for 14.
late yesterday I sold a dow future at 8840 and looking to take profits around 8500
seeing as how beared up I am, I have to be aware that the alternate count would have the S&P still in a triangle with another pop to 975 possible and 1080 improbably
on the stock front, pretty much everything is down a few percent after a nice rally yesterday
however GERN is holding over $4.5 and EBS just under $20. CBST looking like an add over $27
OSIR looking like an add over $20
UNG was mentioned on Fast Money and of course is down today with Oil and Nat Gas both falling. However Nat Gas over $7 and then over $7.3 will look bullish indeed
ASEI up $7 on good earnings oh well i sold it at $63 a few days ago sincel i could not chance it after Obama won. this high at $70+- could be it. if it keeps rallying i will be accumulating again
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?GERN,OSIR,STEM,CUR,EBS,QCOR,MYGN,CBST,ung,asei|C
at 11am it looks like the hourly print will be sideways with a slight under cut of 888 (which happens to be the closing futures price on 10/10/2008 when many declared a capitulation bottom
hold short and scalp on weakness under 891(?) - with 855 a wonderful priceto buy in October
Monday, November 10, 2008
Gap and crap from 940 at 10am to 914 at 1pm
pretty severe down move off of the overnight globex high trade at 955-960.
there are a number of arguments that the S&P continues to be in a range of 900-1000 since the low close at 888 on October 10th (834.70 on oct 29th new moon low)
914 came up as a target on the way down off of the election rally (and the S&P made hourly lows at 907.5 and 904.5 (dow cash 8752 and 8695 Notice the DOW is outperforming today)
so i am trying to wait (not very successfully since i am still trading) for the S&P to let me know that either it is an acceleration move under 800 or perhaps a 2nd leg up towards 1065 before the acceleration under 800
bought eminis at 914 and 911.50(Friday's's 3pm hourly)
on the Stock front, the Stem cell stocks -STEM, GERN and CUR are up nicely but off of their highs. it would seem like the S&P needs to rally to get these things to start going alot higher for a few days (ie 50-100% returns is the goal)
OSIR going sideways to lower but that does not bother me yet since OSIR has a real business unlike STEM, GERN and CUR
ASTM is an even bigger POS trading at $0.68 and looking like $1 is in the cards
CBSY, QCOR and ICUI all higher and MYGN ready to explode on volume over $72 (base on base)
EBS opened higher and fell unde $20 buy point. be careful and add slowly over $20/21/22 with $28 possible if the S&P is rallying big time (doubtful)
Although Oil is well off of its highs, Natural Gas remains firmly higher and UNG is looking okay with an add point over $33. Another good looking chart is LG
Gold off of its highs too but a few stocks hanging in there KGC, EGO
there are a number of arguments that the S&P continues to be in a range of 900-1000 since the low close at 888 on October 10th (834.70 on oct 29th new moon low)
914 came up as a target on the way down off of the election rally (and the S&P made hourly lows at 907.5 and 904.5 (dow cash 8752 and 8695 Notice the DOW is outperforming today)
so i am trying to wait (not very successfully since i am still trading) for the S&P to let me know that either it is an acceleration move under 800 or perhaps a 2nd leg up towards 1065 before the acceleration under 800
bought eminis at 914 and 911.50(Friday's's 3pm hourly)
on the Stock front, the Stem cell stocks -STEM, GERN and CUR are up nicely but off of their highs. it would seem like the S&P needs to rally to get these things to start going alot higher for a few days (ie 50-100% returns is the goal)
OSIR going sideways to lower but that does not bother me yet since OSIR has a real business unlike STEM, GERN and CUR
ASTM is an even bigger POS trading at $0.68 and looking like $1 is in the cards
CBSY, QCOR and ICUI all higher and MYGN ready to explode on volume over $72 (base on base)
EBS opened higher and fell unde $20 buy point. be careful and add slowly over $20/21/22 with $28 possible if the S&P is rallying big time (doubtful)
Although Oil is well off of its highs, Natural Gas remains firmly higher and UNG is looking okay with an add point over $33. Another good looking chart is LG
Gold off of its highs too but a few stocks hanging in there KGC, EGO
Obama effect - Stem cell research good, Oil exploration bad
over the weekend, news reports suggest Pres elect Obama will cancel a number of Bush's executive orders
top of the list is the ban on government funds for embryonic stem cell research
as a result GERN, OSIR, STEM, CUR are all indicated 20%+ higher on the open
Other stocks in the Healthcare/biotech sectors that continue to show relative strength include EBS at an all time high, QCOR, MYGN, CBST
A High Tech play in Healthcare is CPSI who provides IT to hospitals
The S&P and DOW are up overnight as China announced a stimulus package. It seems like OIL and GOLD and Natural GAS are also liking the news
of course the major indices are still consolidating the horrible losses in October and many prognosticators suggest another decline of 15-25% is still likely before a real bottom is in place
UNG and CHK are ways to play the Nat Gas move especially on a close over $7.35
DBS, DGP are the double gold and silver ETF and a strong close over $11 and $770 would seem to be the breakout levels for the preceious metals
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?gern,osir,stem,cur,ebs,qcor,mygn,cbst,cpsi,ing|C
top of the list is the ban on government funds for embryonic stem cell research
as a result GERN, OSIR, STEM, CUR are all indicated 20%+ higher on the open
Other stocks in the Healthcare/biotech sectors that continue to show relative strength include EBS at an all time high, QCOR, MYGN, CBST
A High Tech play in Healthcare is CPSI who provides IT to hospitals
The S&P and DOW are up overnight as China announced a stimulus package. It seems like OIL and GOLD and Natural GAS are also liking the news
of course the major indices are still consolidating the horrible losses in October and many prognosticators suggest another decline of 15-25% is still likely before a real bottom is in place
UNG and CHK are ways to play the Nat Gas move especially on a close over $7.35
DBS, DGP are the double gold and silver ETF and a strong close over $11 and $770 would seem to be the breakout levels for the preceious metals
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?gern,osir,stem,cur,ebs,qcor,mygn,cbst,cpsi,ing|C
Friday, November 7, 2008
not very funny short squeeze right to the stated target
937/9000/1290
and a beautiful lift off just around 3:30pm low
tried to buy 8830 and instead sold 8930
sold a 980 call at the close against a dec 1000 call
bought EBS at 20.35 and plan on chasing it higher up to 24 with a 28 target
gold stocks seemed firm signaling relative strength in a dangerous world?
we will see what the weekend brings
will Obama name a treasury secretary
will anything work
will Pelosi throw more tax dollars down the sht hole
stayed tuned
in the meantime some stocks seem to be going up on accumulation (ie fear has subsided a little) while others still look like crap
put the line in the water and after you catch it, keep or throw back.
somedays are better for fishing a good catch than others. learn how to tell early in the day
and a beautiful lift off just around 3:30pm low
tried to buy 8830 and instead sold 8930
sold a 980 call at the close against a dec 1000 call
bought EBS at 20.35 and plan on chasing it higher up to 24 with a 28 target
gold stocks seemed firm signaling relative strength in a dangerous world?
we will see what the weekend brings
will Obama name a treasury secretary
will anything work
will Pelosi throw more tax dollars down the sht hole
stayed tuned
in the meantime some stocks seem to be going up on accumulation (ie fear has subsided a little) while others still look like crap
put the line in the water and after you catch it, keep or throw back.
somedays are better for fishing a good catch than others. learn how to tell early in the day
914/8775/1250 seem to define Trending friday
with the expected horrendous employment report the market is trying stabilize around the 914 level which is the spot where the October 29th rally began to accelerate on its way to 1000
after the worst 2 down days in history, a rally back towards the breakdown level at 937/8967/1275 would seem possible.
next week we get the Inflation reports and perhaps lower inflation will be welcomed.
However, the market has to deal with the fact that mutual funds statements are in the mail and folks may just panic and sell when they find out just how bad their wealth has shrunk.
my trading has stunk for 8 days so i am trying my best to wait
However on the stock front
EBS reported blowout earnings (up 250%) and the stock is back near the resistance at $19. ( i was trying to buy $15.xx but the dip only got to $16 :(
NL is a buy from a few days ago and I only bought it because my DAD's chemical plant was acquired by NL back in the 70's. They have changed alot since then
OSIR provides "tools' for STEM cell work (?) and is getting a cash injection from Genzyme
the other stem companies are not going straight up yet but STEM, CUR and GERN all have the ability to make a 20-50% move (either way of course)
other health care stocks that are trying to "outperform"(ie go down less) include: AFAM, NUVA, MYGN, CELG, CBST, ICUI ( i own NUVA, MYGN, CBST and ICUI)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?ebs,nl,osir,stem,cur,gern,nuva,mygn,cbst,icui|C
I keep thinking that all the central bank money printing is going to end up in Silver and GOld instead of Bonds and the Dollar. The double bullish gold bet is DGP and silver is DBS
individual stocks include KGC, LIHR, EGO
Energy stocks are having a hard time but OIL at $60 and Heating oil at $2 seem to have stabilized the market, If the weather gets cold in the Northeast, Heating Oil will rise(right now it is going to be in the 70's where is my golf partner??)
UPL has been a big winner over the past decade so i will be watching for a buy signal
CHK, GHM,
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?dgp,dbs,lihr,kgc,ego,cef,upl,chk,ung,ghm|C
and then there are the darlings in defense that IBD keeps favoring
ASEI, AXYS, AVAV, FLIR,
and then there are the Big Boys who will be going under Obama's knife for certain - NOC GD LMT (God bless him if he can actually stop these big weapons programs in their tracks
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?asei,avav,flir,axys,icxt,undt,alog,gd,noc,lmt|C
too much duplication in our services. we do not need air forces in the Army for example
and we do not need to protect socialist Europe from Mother Russia (oops just kidding) and if China can be nice with Taiwan they can be nice with Korea(clearly a North Korea is dead as a military threat beyond South Korea)
representative government is a farce since the money is directing our congress person's vote not ideology
its all about who gets the welfare redistribution
at 11am we printed an up hour but also failed to achieve the levels at 9000 and 935
this suggests a big afternoon crash with a tuesday low below 800 as wave 5 unfolds
we will know more by 2pm. the 1st rally seems over and the GM news is looking bad for GM
however the rumors are swirling that Obama will say that his wise counselors have told him to lay off Wall Street and shoe them some love on CAP gains taxes etc.
in that case the 914 level will somehow hold through lunch and the half hour bars will start to show an upward sloping channel with a blast off move some time between 2:20pm and 3:30pm clsoing on the highs (a classic trending friday)
after the worst 2 down days in history, a rally back towards the breakdown level at 937/8967/1275 would seem possible.
next week we get the Inflation reports and perhaps lower inflation will be welcomed.
However, the market has to deal with the fact that mutual funds statements are in the mail and folks may just panic and sell when they find out just how bad their wealth has shrunk.
my trading has stunk for 8 days so i am trying my best to wait
However on the stock front
EBS reported blowout earnings (up 250%) and the stock is back near the resistance at $19. ( i was trying to buy $15.xx but the dip only got to $16 :(
NL is a buy from a few days ago and I only bought it because my DAD's chemical plant was acquired by NL back in the 70's. They have changed alot since then
OSIR provides "tools' for STEM cell work (?) and is getting a cash injection from Genzyme
the other stem companies are not going straight up yet but STEM, CUR and GERN all have the ability to make a 20-50% move (either way of course)
other health care stocks that are trying to "outperform"(ie go down less) include: AFAM, NUVA, MYGN, CELG, CBST, ICUI ( i own NUVA, MYGN, CBST and ICUI)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?ebs,nl,osir,stem,cur,gern,nuva,mygn,cbst,icui|C
I keep thinking that all the central bank money printing is going to end up in Silver and GOld instead of Bonds and the Dollar. The double bullish gold bet is DGP and silver is DBS
individual stocks include KGC, LIHR, EGO
Energy stocks are having a hard time but OIL at $60 and Heating oil at $2 seem to have stabilized the market, If the weather gets cold in the Northeast, Heating Oil will rise(right now it is going to be in the 70's where is my golf partner??)
UPL has been a big winner over the past decade so i will be watching for a buy signal
CHK, GHM,
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?dgp,dbs,lihr,kgc,ego,cef,upl,chk,ung,ghm|C
and then there are the darlings in defense that IBD keeps favoring
ASEI, AXYS, AVAV, FLIR,
and then there are the Big Boys who will be going under Obama's knife for certain - NOC GD LMT (God bless him if he can actually stop these big weapons programs in their tracks
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?asei,avav,flir,axys,icxt,undt,alog,gd,noc,lmt|C
too much duplication in our services. we do not need air forces in the Army for example
and we do not need to protect socialist Europe from Mother Russia (oops just kidding) and if China can be nice with Taiwan they can be nice with Korea(clearly a North Korea is dead as a military threat beyond South Korea)
representative government is a farce since the money is directing our congress person's vote not ideology
its all about who gets the welfare redistribution
at 11am we printed an up hour but also failed to achieve the levels at 9000 and 935
this suggests a big afternoon crash with a tuesday low below 800 as wave 5 unfolds
we will know more by 2pm. the 1st rally seems over and the GM news is looking bad for GM
however the rumors are swirling that Obama will say that his wise counselors have told him to lay off Wall Street and shoe them some love on CAP gains taxes etc.
in that case the 914 level will somehow hold through lunch and the half hour bars will start to show an upward sloping channel with a blast off move some time between 2:20pm and 3:30pm clsoing on the highs (a classic trending friday)
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
3pm and the breakunder 996 has resulted in a 36 point decline from 1003
that length has been a standard length of an S&P move prior to the October volatility which had moves of 50 to 100 points intra day
3pm is up slightly and 985 looks like a possible place to go short if the bounce can get going into 3:40pm
otherwise 943-948(or 914-900) here we come to complete 5 waves down from 2am this morning at 1008.5
CBST looking good along with MYGN, ICUI and QCOR
UNG looks like a possible island reversal over the past few daily bars CHK a fast money favorite
UPL is one of the all time best oil related stocks and has been beaten back quite a ways
DBS to double silver play is acting relatively strong (poor man's gold??) and the holiday season coming around the world
CCJ and SQM are uranium and other metals miners looking way oversold
EBS going back to the buy zone around 15ish??
3pm is up slightly and 985 looks like a possible place to go short if the bounce can get going into 3:40pm
otherwise 943-948(or 914-900) here we come to complete 5 waves down from 2am this morning at 1008.5
CBST looking good along with MYGN, ICUI and QCOR
UNG looks like a possible island reversal over the past few daily bars CHK a fast money favorite
UPL is one of the all time best oil related stocks and has been beaten back quite a ways
DBS to double silver play is acting relatively strong (poor man's gold??) and the holiday season coming around the world
CCJ and SQM are uranium and other metals miners looking way oversold
EBS going back to the buy zone around 15ish??
10am Gap down to 991/9455/1359.75 - will the decline continue?
seems like the market wants to go higher still
since the S&P was not able to gap and hold under yesterday's lows at 996.6, I will be waiting for a few more hourly prints to figure out if this is short squeeze wednesday or the beginning of the 5th wave crash (11am print looks sightly higher at sideways at 994/9485/1359 and under 996.5 key)
on the stock front, bought MYGN at the $69.25 open and will buy more above $72.22
bought QCOR and CBST yesterday on their breakouts
IBD featured Biotech stocks including NUVA and EBS.
CUR and OSIR are acting okay in the Stem cell business but not STEM and GERN
Natural gas and heating oil have interesting bottoming patterns in place and UNG rallied nicely yesterday (although i am still underwater until $33 is exceeded)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?mygn,qcor,cbst,NUVA,ebs,cur,osir,stem,gern,ung|C
since the S&P was not able to gap and hold under yesterday's lows at 996.6, I will be waiting for a few more hourly prints to figure out if this is short squeeze wednesday or the beginning of the 5th wave crash (11am print looks sightly higher at sideways at 994/9485/1359 and under 996.5 key)
on the stock front, bought MYGN at the $69.25 open and will buy more above $72.22
bought QCOR and CBST yesterday on their breakouts
IBD featured Biotech stocks including NUVA and EBS.
CUR and OSIR are acting okay in the Stem cell business but not STEM and GERN
Natural gas and heating oil have interesting bottoming patterns in place and UNG rallied nicely yesterday (although i am still underwater until $33 is exceeded)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?mygn,qcor,cbst,NUVA,ebs,cur,osir,stem,gern,ung|C
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
back form the beach - High turning point?? Watch Friday's employment
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808
these chart ideas mirror mine so long as upside volume does not pick up for too long now that the election uncertainty is gone
I am reminded that the best down moves in 2008 began after bad employment reports
(February, June September)
so until then, we have a chance that tomorrow is Short Squeeze Wednesday with a light volume rally into 10am that will be sold. then consolidation thursday. so i do not want to get too short too early Upside targets are 1030 and 1060ish
if not we are headed back to 914-888 where the breakout retest would be complete
the first signs of a down move would be an hourly print and hold under 996 (Tuesday's 3 pm hour) and then 983 where the last breakout occurred on the hourly charts
seems like there are stocks breaking out in health care. MYGN in particular looks interesting and i am buying the open
the Stem cell stocks i bought are all looking not so hot but maybe tomorrow CUR, CBST, STEM, GERN, OSIR
I would not want to be long defense stocks like LMT, GD, NOC, CAI, SAIC(?), etc
notice that EBS, AVAV, pulled back while FLIR, ASEI, wnet sideways
all these big boondoogle programs are going to be on the chopping block ( i hope)
looking forward to volatility to start again as the market tries to figure our just who is Barack Obama
so far just some great speaches and a campaign team who used community organizing principles to reach out to the masses to fundraise and vote. unlike the elitist John Kerry, Obama connected with those people who would not get off their butts and vote last time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania etc which made the difference
these chart ideas mirror mine so long as upside volume does not pick up for too long now that the election uncertainty is gone
I am reminded that the best down moves in 2008 began after bad employment reports
(February, June September)
so until then, we have a chance that tomorrow is Short Squeeze Wednesday with a light volume rally into 10am that will be sold. then consolidation thursday. so i do not want to get too short too early Upside targets are 1030 and 1060ish
if not we are headed back to 914-888 where the breakout retest would be complete
the first signs of a down move would be an hourly print and hold under 996 (Tuesday's 3 pm hour) and then 983 where the last breakout occurred on the hourly charts
seems like there are stocks breaking out in health care. MYGN in particular looks interesting and i am buying the open
the Stem cell stocks i bought are all looking not so hot but maybe tomorrow CUR, CBST, STEM, GERN, OSIR
I would not want to be long defense stocks like LMT, GD, NOC, CAI, SAIC(?), etc
notice that EBS, AVAV, pulled back while FLIR, ASEI, wnet sideways
all these big boondoogle programs are going to be on the chopping block ( i hope)
looking forward to volatility to start again as the market tries to figure our just who is Barack Obama
so far just some great speaches and a campaign team who used community organizing principles to reach out to the masses to fundraise and vote. unlike the elitist John Kerry, Obama connected with those people who would not get off their butts and vote last time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania etc which made the difference
Friday, October 31, 2008
could that run to 977 be it or do we need 992
hmmm
rode some longs up from 961 brekout hourly to 973 hookem above the prior high
back to flat in the futures wanting to go swimming but no time to leave the screen on the last day of the worst month in history
on the stock front, AFAM, ISYS keep going (even though i sold)
IPHS, IPI recover from oversold and thinking dump at the end of the day along with the gold stocks too CEF and KGC both up from where i bought them
FLIR, EBS, ASEI, AXYS, AVAV, even ICXT and ALOG keep chugging higher in the seasonal strong period
got crushed in medicat technology could they possible bounce before eyar end
rode some longs up from 961 brekout hourly to 973 hookem above the prior high
back to flat in the futures wanting to go swimming but no time to leave the screen on the last day of the worst month in history
on the stock front, AFAM, ISYS keep going (even though i sold)
IPHS, IPI recover from oversold and thinking dump at the end of the day along with the gold stocks too CEF and KGC both up from where i bought them
FLIR, EBS, ASEI, AXYS, AVAV, even ICXT and ALOG keep chugging higher in the seasonal strong period
got crushed in medicat technology could they possible bounce before eyar end
Gap and Go on trending friday 952/9155/1319.5 10 am print is the definition
thought there was a trading band with 948.5 and 956.5 hourly prints on the way down yesterday
and so far the S&P is stuck right there
I reminded myself that the blast off rally from 855 to 940 has basically been kept intact
so either a breakout or a fakeout move followed by a trending move is the expected pattern
the problem right now is that i am not sure if we spike down then rally sideways to higher towards 1000 or 1065 for a few more weeks; or whether they spike it up today all the way to 1000? or more and then crash it when i am at the beach on monday, tuesday(especially if the exit polls show an obama landslide)
for now trying to just stay short the DOW future from yesterday's closing high hour at 9226 which was a Cash hourly print a few days ago. if wave 3 of 5 down of A is next, then i want to get real short
on the stock front AFAM and AVAV featured in IBD
sold AFAM on the gap up (and $2 points from the high) to book a profit
sold EBS yesterday and it is still higher
ASEI trying to chug forward ahead of the november earnings report (think i do not want to own it into the election anyways)
selling ISYS above $24 for a nice profit too
the IBD rankings have EBS, AFAM and ISYS the top three and I owned them all in advance of that ranking . i will buy them back if the general market indices want to go higher since the IBD community can be a self fulfilling prophecy in the short run
FLIR is a new position that needs to keep clearing $31
thinking sell gold stocks since no real traction
however the natural resources stocks that were bought include IPI IPHS and SQM and seem to be relatively strong into month end
the first two are phosphate and way oversold and the other is Brazilian oversold miner(?)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?sqm,UNG,Avav,kgc,ipi,ISYS,FLIR,EBS,Afam,iphs|C
by the way the 30 year bond is now 10 full points below the high it made last month wow
the yield curve is steepening as the markets decide not to lend 30 year money at 4% anymore
(of course i always assume that it is Bill Gross at PIMCO pulling the strings in the 30yr. I imagine he shorted the hell out of them at 3.75% and is a big buyer at 5%)
and so far the S&P is stuck right there
I reminded myself that the blast off rally from 855 to 940 has basically been kept intact
so either a breakout or a fakeout move followed by a trending move is the expected pattern
the problem right now is that i am not sure if we spike down then rally sideways to higher towards 1000 or 1065 for a few more weeks; or whether they spike it up today all the way to 1000? or more and then crash it when i am at the beach on monday, tuesday(especially if the exit polls show an obama landslide)
for now trying to just stay short the DOW future from yesterday's closing high hour at 9226 which was a Cash hourly print a few days ago. if wave 3 of 5 down of A is next, then i want to get real short
on the stock front AFAM and AVAV featured in IBD
sold AFAM on the gap up (and $2 points from the high) to book a profit
sold EBS yesterday and it is still higher
ASEI trying to chug forward ahead of the november earnings report (think i do not want to own it into the election anyways)
selling ISYS above $24 for a nice profit too
the IBD rankings have EBS, AFAM and ISYS the top three and I owned them all in advance of that ranking . i will buy them back if the general market indices want to go higher since the IBD community can be a self fulfilling prophecy in the short run
FLIR is a new position that needs to keep clearing $31
thinking sell gold stocks since no real traction
however the natural resources stocks that were bought include IPI IPHS and SQM and seem to be relatively strong into month end
the first two are phosphate and way oversold and the other is Brazilian oversold miner(?)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?sqm,UNG,Avav,kgc,ipi,ISYS,FLIR,EBS,Afam,iphs|C
by the way the 30 year bond is now 10 full points below the high it made last month wow
the yield curve is steepening as the markets decide not to lend 30 year money at 4% anymore
(of course i always assume that it is Bill Gross at PIMCO pulling the strings in the 30yr. I imagine he shorted the hell out of them at 3.75% and is a big buyer at 5%)
Thursday, October 30, 2008
consolidation thursday 985 to 885??- Negative GDP can't be good news
looks like a triangle forming around 955 cash
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
Put Call seems like too many bulls
breaking down late today will kick off the 3rd of 5th (or 1st of 5th) wave down
however there are higher targets around 985 and 1002.3 gap close. Trading back over the 956.50/9170/1338 10am prints will be the first sign that higher is first then lower is later
this rally could be mutual fund manager's attempt to jam their new relative strength favorites higher along with the stocks that have fallen the furthest. then Monday and Tuesday I am at the beach so a good time to get to cash for the next 9 week cycle. volatility is going to continue
DOW 9257 cash hourly then 9500 the 9600 are still resistance and until the market easily holds over these levels I have to believe that there is better than a 50% chance of breaking the October lows after Obama is elected
on the Stock front
ASEI above $60 needs news on the earnings front
ISYS clearly broken above $22.3 means $25 likely
FLIR continuing from way oversold
EBS needs to hold over $17 or dump and reload later
AVAV at $35 resistance and looks like an expolsive up move underway
KGC was up 20% yesterday and up another 3% today - be quick to the trigger
CEF not quite as strong
Gold needs to blow through $785 (prior low) sooner rather than later or watch out below again
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?avav,UNG,ASEI,KGC,DGP,ISYS,FLIR,EBS,AVAV,VMW|C
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
Put Call seems like too many bulls
breaking down late today will kick off the 3rd of 5th (or 1st of 5th) wave down
however there are higher targets around 985 and 1002.3 gap close. Trading back over the 956.50/9170/1338 10am prints will be the first sign that higher is first then lower is later
this rally could be mutual fund manager's attempt to jam their new relative strength favorites higher along with the stocks that have fallen the furthest. then Monday and Tuesday I am at the beach so a good time to get to cash for the next 9 week cycle. volatility is going to continue
DOW 9257 cash hourly then 9500 the 9600 are still resistance and until the market easily holds over these levels I have to believe that there is better than a 50% chance of breaking the October lows after Obama is elected
on the Stock front
ASEI above $60 needs news on the earnings front
ISYS clearly broken above $22.3 means $25 likely
FLIR continuing from way oversold
EBS needs to hold over $17 or dump and reload later
AVAV at $35 resistance and looks like an expolsive up move underway
KGC was up 20% yesterday and up another 3% today - be quick to the trigger
CEF not quite as strong
Gold needs to blow through $785 (prior low) sooner rather than later or watch out below again
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?avav,UNG,ASEI,KGC,DGP,ISYS,FLIR,EBS,AVAV,VMW|C
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
stocks to watch
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?ALO,UNG,ASEI,KGC,DGP,ISYS,FLIR,EBS,AVAV,VMW|C
can they sqeeuze out another 100 points before Nov4 - 935 key
with the metaphor of a football game, the bears just fumbled right on the brink of a new moon meltdown
i took some more off the table in the bearish 401(k) and am thinking do more with this volatility
with 850 a distant memory (so far today) I have to think that the positive momentum from yesterday's blast off has to be carried through at least 2pm today
if it is short squeeze wednesday, then sell 10am at 934.5/9025/1288.75 and buy 10:30amish dip at 930/8990/1280 is kind of working
the next trade is a noon balloon to trap the last bulls at the top (985??or 1025)
obvious key is still the 888 close from 10/10 (884/8440/1208 were all great buys and i did get in and out a few times on the way up. in hindsight just getting in and staying in would have made a lot more sense. the message that the market has been screaming this month is that the number of players(and therefore opinions) has been drastically reduced either for bankruptcy or sensibility
only the deepest pockets are supposed to play. i believe that with the proper time frames, triggers and leverage I can make more winning shots than losing. so it goes back to money management and risk tolerance. with volatilty up the unit bet has to go down except when you are on a roll
935 again as i finish typing
noon ballon any moment now 9050 looks key on the DOW futures
oil, nat gas and gold are all up today and doing wonders to heating oil (up 6 cents=$2400), UNG up 2.5% and CEF and KGC up 6 and 10%(EGO up 9%, PAAS up 13%, SLW up 18%)
DGP is the double gold etf and up 5%
DBS is the double silver etf and up 9%
on the defense front EBS has bounced nicely on low volume from 14.5 key to 17 needs to have the stock market rally continue or a quick move down could happen easily. the message boards are active on this #1 rated IBD stock
ISYS tried a breakout yesterday over $22 and failed this is the #2 IBD stock
ASEI has me working on quotes some more
FLIR gapped up and just needs to build higher in an upward sloping pennant
AVAV has the unmanned drones guarding borders all over the world
ALO was a buyout candidate $10 higher last month
VMW reported good earnings and was trading at $120 once upon a time and needs to form a cup and handle at $40ish before that can happen- high risk in other words but should od good in up markets
i took some more off the table in the bearish 401(k) and am thinking do more with this volatility
with 850 a distant memory (so far today) I have to think that the positive momentum from yesterday's blast off has to be carried through at least 2pm today
if it is short squeeze wednesday, then sell 10am at 934.5/9025/1288.75 and buy 10:30amish dip at 930/8990/1280 is kind of working
the next trade is a noon balloon to trap the last bulls at the top (985??or 1025)
obvious key is still the 888 close from 10/10 (884/8440/1208 were all great buys and i did get in and out a few times on the way up. in hindsight just getting in and staying in would have made a lot more sense. the message that the market has been screaming this month is that the number of players(and therefore opinions) has been drastically reduced either for bankruptcy or sensibility
only the deepest pockets are supposed to play. i believe that with the proper time frames, triggers and leverage I can make more winning shots than losing. so it goes back to money management and risk tolerance. with volatilty up the unit bet has to go down except when you are on a roll
935 again as i finish typing
noon ballon any moment now 9050 looks key on the DOW futures
oil, nat gas and gold are all up today and doing wonders to heating oil (up 6 cents=$2400), UNG up 2.5% and CEF and KGC up 6 and 10%(EGO up 9%, PAAS up 13%, SLW up 18%)
DGP is the double gold etf and up 5%
DBS is the double silver etf and up 9%
on the defense front EBS has bounced nicely on low volume from 14.5 key to 17 needs to have the stock market rally continue or a quick move down could happen easily. the message boards are active on this #1 rated IBD stock
ISYS tried a breakout yesterday over $22 and failed this is the #2 IBD stock
ASEI has me working on quotes some more
FLIR gapped up and just needs to build higher in an upward sloping pennant
AVAV has the unmanned drones guarding borders all over the world
ALO was a buyout candidate $10 higher last month
VMW reported good earnings and was trading at $120 once upon a time and needs to form a cup and handle at $40ish before that can happen- high risk in other words but should od good in up markets
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
low hour at 850.5/8210/1180.75 will be key for the lunch time screw job
the Put Call ratio is way up today even though the market is up
that is telling me that the last wave down is being anticipated or hedged by the majority of options traders.
in other words, it won't happen, or it won't happen yet
a spike just under the lows at 825 futures into the close could set up a short squeeze wednesday as the FED cuts interest rates at 2:15pm tomorrow and declares that inflation is dead for the forseeable future
after all, the baby boomers just got their wake up call that they had better find some buyers for all their stocks and houses soon because they just took a big hit in the past year
one result is that rallies in home prices and stock prices will be dampened with this baby boomer demand until the US economy lets in more immigrants and creates more jobs at the same time
just traded up to 862 and now short from 856 looking for 851 quick scalp
watching oil and gold for a sign that the smart money knows that monetary inflation is just beginning and the bubble for "stuff" which began in 2003 is going to explode higher as economic chaos is sure to breed wars over stuff
in the defense sector ISYS moving through $21 is a good start for a run back over $25
in the gold sector the initial rally in gold stocks has faded
nothing else moving much
that is telling me that the last wave down is being anticipated or hedged by the majority of options traders.
in other words, it won't happen, or it won't happen yet
a spike just under the lows at 825 futures into the close could set up a short squeeze wednesday as the FED cuts interest rates at 2:15pm tomorrow and declares that inflation is dead for the forseeable future
after all, the baby boomers just got their wake up call that they had better find some buyers for all their stocks and houses soon because they just took a big hit in the past year
one result is that rallies in home prices and stock prices will be dampened with this baby boomer demand until the US economy lets in more immigrants and creates more jobs at the same time
just traded up to 862 and now short from 856 looking for 851 quick scalp
watching oil and gold for a sign that the smart money knows that monetary inflation is just beginning and the bubble for "stuff" which began in 2003 is going to explode higher as economic chaos is sure to breed wars over stuff
in the defense sector ISYS moving through $21 is a good start for a run back over $25
in the gold sector the initial rally in gold stocks has faded
nothing else moving much
10am prints at key resistance 868/8350/1200
well the market tried again to achieve the magnet at 884/8440/1208 and did before the 10am news was issued
now the market is on the key 854 low hour from 10/10 which lots of folks have been calling the BOTTOM for a few days (840 cash)
rode the emini short down from 868 t0 860 and looking to buy the upcross through 860 if it comes
otherwise the hourly charts are looking like a Gap and crap turnaround tuesday is being unfolded with the last hour a possible spike to the "bottom"
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67036679]&disp=O
now the market is on the key 854 low hour from 10/10 which lots of folks have been calling the BOTTOM for a few days (840 cash)
rode the emini short down from 868 t0 860 and looking to buy the upcross through 860 if it comes
otherwise the hourly charts are looking like a Gap and crap turnaround tuesday is being unfolded with the last hour a possible spike to the "bottom"
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67036679]&disp=O
thank goodness for globex overnight trading- Is it Turnaround Tuesday Up to Down?
while watching the game last night, i could sense that 840 was holding after the initial run to test yesterday's low at 825.
since i was heavily short at the close i covered both short DOW at breakeven 8076
to protect the overpayment for the nov 850 put, i had to buy eminis at 840 and 850 and sold them at 868 where i reversed short
it should be interesting to see how close the day session can get to yesterday's hourly highs at 8557 CASH Dow and 884 S&P futures
if yesterday was the beginning of wave 3 down of the last wave down before a year rally ensues, then prices can not exceed the last wave 2 high around 915/DOW 8792
I mentioned yesterday that 884/8440/1208 on the futures seem to be swing numbers that are "fair value" to enough traders to keep the range +- 4% from these levels
also, next monday and tuesday i will be at the beach since the girls get a grading holiday.
the market strangely had the bears sterns low when i was in Florida in March, and Last November grading holiday was the beginning of this decline through 1390 S&P (500 points later yikes)
and of course the 2002 october 8th low that began this rally at 775 that has now almost completely retraced
in stock trading, Gold and oil seem to be making a turn. not sure how high the bounce may get but it seems worth watching closely. the ETF's to use are GLD, DGP, for gold and DIG, OIH, for oil
homeland security and defense stocks are relatively stable but need upside volume to clear the resistance from September when many set their high ISYS, ICXT, EBS, ASEI, FLIR are still in my portfolio. if the S&P is ready to rally, these will too
the 10am print on turnaround tuesday will tell us something by 2pm this afternoon
since i was heavily short at the close i covered both short DOW at breakeven 8076
to protect the overpayment for the nov 850 put, i had to buy eminis at 840 and 850 and sold them at 868 where i reversed short
it should be interesting to see how close the day session can get to yesterday's hourly highs at 8557 CASH Dow and 884 S&P futures
if yesterday was the beginning of wave 3 down of the last wave down before a year rally ensues, then prices can not exceed the last wave 2 high around 915/DOW 8792
I mentioned yesterday that 884/8440/1208 on the futures seem to be swing numbers that are "fair value" to enough traders to keep the range +- 4% from these levels
also, next monday and tuesday i will be at the beach since the girls get a grading holiday.
the market strangely had the bears sterns low when i was in Florida in March, and Last November grading holiday was the beginning of this decline through 1390 S&P (500 points later yikes)
and of course the 2002 october 8th low that began this rally at 775 that has now almost completely retraced
in stock trading, Gold and oil seem to be making a turn. not sure how high the bounce may get but it seems worth watching closely. the ETF's to use are GLD, DGP, for gold and DIG, OIH, for oil
homeland security and defense stocks are relatively stable but need upside volume to clear the resistance from September when many set their high ISYS, ICXT, EBS, ASEI, FLIR are still in my portfolio. if the S&P is ready to rally, these will too
the 10am print on turnaround tuesday will tell us something by 2pm this afternoon
Monday, October 27, 2008
crash alert or the bottom? - 854 breaks hard late and 8076 teeters on the edge
they have just taken apart any monday rally attempt again and this has created a setup for a crash over the next few days. the Hourly lows are being taken out into the close and the daily chart looks like a big down day all of a sudder
(an alternative count would have today's low at 825 near the end of a decline from 991 and just a mild spike down under 820 could be the bottom of the 5th wave down)
can't believe how i can trade from good to bad in minutes
shorted the DOW break at 8076 and bought a Nov 850 put and sold a Nov 985 call at the close
all of this activity protends some large action.
still thinking when to pull more money out of the bearish 401 k positions
gold and oil were looking good and then faded again
not sure what earnings reports are on tap
monthend is yearend for some mutual funds (?) and lower prices seems to keep bring more selling instead of less
(an alternative count would have today's low at 825 near the end of a decline from 991 and just a mild spike down under 820 could be the bottom of the 5th wave down)
can't believe how i can trade from good to bad in minutes
shorted the DOW break at 8076 and bought a Nov 850 put and sold a Nov 985 call at the close
all of this activity protends some large action.
still thinking when to pull more money out of the bearish 401 k positions
gold and oil were looking good and then faded again
not sure what earnings reports are on tap
monthend is yearend for some mutual funds (?) and lower prices seems to keep bring more selling instead of less
so far the market resists crashing though 854/8076
funny how all the overnight hoopla turned out to be nothing again
are they lulling us to sleep right before the crash?
new moon, FED meeting announcement, GDP report, election, unemployment
so far the hourly S&P and DOW futures seem to be attracted to 884/8440/1208 and are swinging wildly either side by 30/250/50 point ranges
late day sell off could lead to the overnight disaster.
trade what you see not what you want
and that is easier to do if you are FLAT your positions when you are "seeing" the pattern
last hour of trading begins with the major averages giving up their gains
we will see
short november and december calls hoping that the S&P continues to fall into 780-735 target (outside chance at 664)
are they lulling us to sleep right before the crash?
new moon, FED meeting announcement, GDP report, election, unemployment
so far the hourly S&P and DOW futures seem to be attracted to 884/8440/1208 and are swinging wildly either side by 30/250/50 point ranges
late day sell off could lead to the overnight disaster.
trade what you see not what you want
and that is easier to do if you are FLAT your positions when you are "seeing" the pattern
last hour of trading begins with the major averages giving up their gains
we will see
short november and december calls hoping that the S&P continues to fall into 780-735 target (outside chance at 664)
854 breaks and so does 837 in overnight trading- Wave 5 continues
S&p currently trading at the lowest levels since 2002 in the US and Nikkei since 1982 in Japan. Can you imagine
however the DOW is relatively stronger as 8076 is the low hour in futures and the DOW futures are only at 8000
if wave i of wave 5 was from 993 to 856, then wave iii is 917.25 to 780?
however the DOW is relatively stronger as 8076 is the low hour in futures and the DOW futures are only at 8000
if wave i of wave 5 was from 993 to 856, then wave iii is 917.25 to 780?
Friday, October 24, 2008
hourly range stuck between 868 and 888(10/10 closing price)
took a quick short trade in the emini NDX and DOW near the end of the day and covered too early for a small redemption to the horrible morning trading
sold a NOV 965 call at the close and bought an emini at 864
sold a DEC 1000 call earlier in the day on a panic
interesting that the S&P and DOW made lower lows than yesterday but not lower lows than 10/10 panic
not sure what it means but i will be Golf and dinner for the beginning of the Sunday trade at 6pm
Meant to mention that GOLD hit a speed line at $685 this morning and closed above the $705 area that I was going to buy at 3am.
bought CEF and KGC near the end of the day just in case GOLD has made a low only $240 (25%) from the $920 resistance (where i was trying to go long jeesh)
EBS made a nice recovery and I added on the dip under $14.4 early today (got filled at $13,91 nice)
if the S&P needs to finally complete the 5th wave down, a low in the Sunday overnight at 800 would look right
otherwise could be that the 5th wave is done at 860 hourly low at 2pm and a larger 4th wave to 1100 is ready to start
(i think month end and then employment report Friday still mean more selling next week)
sold a NOV 965 call at the close and bought an emini at 864
sold a DEC 1000 call earlier in the day on a panic
interesting that the S&P and DOW made lower lows than yesterday but not lower lows than 10/10 panic
not sure what it means but i will be Golf and dinner for the beginning of the Sunday trade at 6pm
Meant to mention that GOLD hit a speed line at $685 this morning and closed above the $705 area that I was going to buy at 3am.
bought CEF and KGC near the end of the day just in case GOLD has made a low only $240 (25%) from the $920 resistance (where i was trying to go long jeesh)
EBS made a nice recovery and I added on the dip under $14.4 early today (got filled at $13,91 nice)
if the S&P needs to finally complete the 5th wave down, a low in the Sunday overnight at 800 would look right
otherwise could be that the 5th wave is done at 860 hourly low at 2pm and a larger 4th wave to 1100 is ready to start
(i think month end and then employment report Friday still mean more selling next week)
hard to believe that 10am 966 and noon 976 What volatility??
LOL
not sure what to think but sold a DEC 1000 call for 22 and finally made a day trade up from 974 and 978 to 986
yesterday i had 884/8440/1208 as key swing points and now we are back below them all (although the NDX seems a little stronger)
have to make an airport run during the 2pm-3:30pm afternoon witching hour
did Oil actually bottom today at $63 we will see. any "real" interruption of supply will be the catalyst for higher prices. otherwise OPEC may be able to slow the descent by giving a lower side support to the long term players who are thinking $35-50 is possible for the final low
not sure what to think but sold a DEC 1000 call for 22 and finally made a day trade up from 974 and 978 to 986
yesterday i had 884/8440/1208 as key swing points and now we are back below them all (although the NDX seems a little stronger)
have to make an airport run during the 2pm-3:30pm afternoon witching hour
did Oil actually bottom today at $63 we will see. any "real" interruption of supply will be the catalyst for higher prices. otherwise OPEC may be able to slow the descent by giving a lower side support to the long term players who are thinking $35-50 is possible for the final low
everyone bought the open(except me) will they sell 10am?
854 hourly low from 10/10 still safe and yesterday's low at 868 looks like the target for now
above 875 and who knows how high up might be
at least 900 could happen
woke up at 2:30am and stayed up which has me zigging and zagging at just the wrong times
thinking wait until after 1pm to get a real sense of today's action
but first the 10am print will give us a clue
above 875 and who knows how high up might be
at least 900 could happen
woke up at 2:30am and stayed up which has me zigging and zagging at just the wrong times
thinking wait until after 1pm to get a real sense of today's action
but first the 10am print will give us a clue
Globex dives on Japan and England slow down - 854 hourly looks like toast
wow
can not believe that the roll over that began around 9pm has continued to the lowest prices since 10/10 low
if trending friday is down, it could be the crash day
otherwise i have to believe that after 45 minutes of selling, the Plunge Protection Team will be there to try to get the DOW back to the key levels around 8440
woke up at 2:30am and tried to swing trade the down move. had a couple good trades and a few bad ones to lose $1000
now i look trapped and busy with Anderson Funding and picking up Susie from the airport
can not believe that the roll over that began around 9pm has continued to the lowest prices since 10/10 low
if trending friday is down, it could be the crash day
otherwise i have to believe that after 45 minutes of selling, the Plunge Protection Team will be there to try to get the DOW back to the key levels around 8440
woke up at 2:30am and tried to swing trade the down move. had a couple good trades and a few bad ones to lose $1000
now i look trapped and busy with Anderson Funding and picking up Susie from the airport
Thursday, October 23, 2008
1pm low hour not a short squeeze thursday after all
covered short at 900975 at 895
reshorted 883 and looking for 874
the testimony on the Hill is very abusive of these "public servants"
Congress had plenty of warning
bought a slug of EBS at 15.43
buying more at 14ish
reshorted 883 and looking for 874
the testimony on the Hill is very abusive of these "public servants"
Congress had plenty of warning
bought a slug of EBS at 15.43
buying more at 14ish
if it is short squeeze thursday sell 10am and buy 2 at 10:30am
ok
just took another nice $500 profit out of the emini at 89775 (10am sell BINGO) and shorted the 30yr bond at 116245
testimony by Greenspan etc to find blame
watch 10:30am 874 then 854 are the hourly lows for 2008
some websites are suggesting that now is a 9 month cycle low (and the time frames for the 1929 and 1987 crash bottoms)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705
just took another nice $500 profit out of the emini at 89775 (10am sell BINGO) and shorted the 30yr bond at 116245
testimony by Greenspan etc to find blame
watch 10:30am 874 then 854 are the hourly lows for 2008
some websites are suggesting that now is a 9 month cycle low (and the time frames for the 1929 and 1987 crash bottoms)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705
If it is short squeeze thursday then 888 will hold at 10:30am
overnight the Globex rallied right to 922 amazing and then fell back to 883 (which happens to be 78% of a rally from 972.50 to 922.5)
i went long at 885 and sold 893
then short at 904 and out at 900 for a quick 600 since 8:30am
still short 2 Nov 1125 from 6 going to 0 against 1 long Nove 1075 from 11 (already paid for) and short a DEC 1100 from 19 trying to by 5.xx
if yesterday's low was a wave 'd' of 4, then another quick pop back above 964 is headed our way
if yesterday's low as wave i or 5 of BIG A(since Oct 2007), then a 3 wave rally back towards 980 or 935 before we finally take out 800 on the S&P
DOW has support at 8300 and resistance at 8800(then 9000)
on the stock front EBS made a low early at $16.5ish yesterday and another low under that could be a spot to start rebuilding a position for the eventual run above 22
white powder found at banks and NY times has to put a spot light on the mnopoly producer of the only vaccine in the world
ASEI needs to close on volume over $59-60 and then we will see if $75 can be seen or even $100
ICXT trading around $8 needs to clear $9 on volume to add
ISYS tading around $20 needs to clear $22.25 on volume to add
(just bought 888 with stops under the 880 and profits at 897)
i went long at 885 and sold 893
then short at 904 and out at 900 for a quick 600 since 8:30am
still short 2 Nov 1125 from 6 going to 0 against 1 long Nove 1075 from 11 (already paid for) and short a DEC 1100 from 19 trying to by 5.xx
if yesterday's low was a wave 'd' of 4, then another quick pop back above 964 is headed our way
if yesterday's low as wave i or 5 of BIG A(since Oct 2007), then a 3 wave rally back towards 980 or 935 before we finally take out 800 on the S&P
DOW has support at 8300 and resistance at 8800(then 9000)
on the stock front EBS made a low early at $16.5ish yesterday and another low under that could be a spot to start rebuilding a position for the eventual run above 22
white powder found at banks and NY times has to put a spot light on the mnopoly producer of the only vaccine in the world
ASEI needs to close on volume over $59-60 and then we will see if $75 can be seen or even $100
ICXT trading around $8 needs to clear $9 on volume to add
ISYS tading around $20 needs to clear $22.25 on volume to add
(just bought 888 with stops under the 880 and profits at 897)
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
late day 3pm squeeze fails above 977/9200 sell low close
thinking that the rally at 3pm failed just under the 981 key hourly print and seems to be rolling over into the close
the low hours are 956/9060/129850
shorting the break under 1291 on the emini NDX in anticipation of the AAPL disaster?
EBS will probably be a rebuy on any gap down under 16.50ish (flat above the last buy at $18.35)
ICUI hanging in there
lots of quoting to ASEI
AFAM showing relative strength
UNG trying again to turn up after losing 50% of its value YIKES may add on strength over $33
the low hours are 956/9060/129850
shorting the break under 1291 on the emini NDX in anticipation of the AAPL disaster?
EBS will probably be a rebuy on any gap down under 16.50ish (flat above the last buy at $18.35)
ICUI hanging in there
lots of quoting to ASEI
AFAM showing relative strength
UNG trying again to turn up after losing 50% of its value YIKES may add on strength over $33
Noon time screw job would suggest a few swings 977-957 nice range so far
the hourly charts have continued to slide after the Bull trap ws sprung late yesterday above 988 (981 hourly)
on the hourly charts the over lap in the DOW at 9087 and S&P under 964 suggests that the swing down has further to go (a few weeks ago a 100 point range occurred meaning 891 low ahead)
took off an emini at 958 and sold the bonds way too soon at 11423 (went to the 11508 1st retracement )
(Dow 9000 has to be a battleground for some a little time)
went short an emini NDX at 1335 and now looking to buy 1266 ( a 100 point range trade)
sold EBS at 18.88 and will no be forced to rebuild a position at higher prices (maybe)
on the hourly charts the over lap in the DOW at 9087 and S&P under 964 suggests that the swing down has further to go (a few weeks ago a 100 point range occurred meaning 891 low ahead)
took off an emini at 958 and sold the bonds way too soon at 11423 (went to the 11508 1st retracement )
(Dow 9000 has to be a battleground for some a little time)
went short an emini NDX at 1335 and now looking to buy 1266 ( a 100 point range trade)
sold EBS at 18.88 and will no be forced to rebuild a position at higher prices (maybe)
10am prints 977/9202/1338 turnaround tuesday or trillion dollar tuesday
the opening range continues to lean towards the idea that squeezing higher is still more likely than crashing under recent support at 946 hourly
if this is a down day, the selling should intensify after 11am.
after all the longs are trapped by 13 S&P points . trading under 981 hourly would look more bearish too
further hourly lows are the way all the declines traded with a late day swoosh of 50 S&P points or so
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705
EBS above $19 and my stops are raised to book profits on all positions can always start rebuilding long at 15-17 if that happens or at 20-22 if that happens
ASEI above $59 is a P&F buy
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705
if this is a down day, the selling should intensify after 11am.
after all the longs are trapped by 13 S&P points . trading under 981 hourly would look more bearish too
further hourly lows are the way all the declines traded with a late day swoosh of 50 S&P points or so
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705
EBS above $19 and my stops are raised to book profits on all positions can always start rebuilding long at 15-17 if that happens or at 20-22 if that happens
ASEI above $59 is a P&F buy
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705
Wave 5 down begins on bad earnings?
The S&P DEC Futures rallied to its highest hourly close at 990.40 since October14th 10am rallyhigh at 1030.50
so the possibility of the 250-400 point 5th wave unfolding into the new moon/monthend/employment report/election over the next 5-13 trading days
The prior high at 981 is now being overlapped to the downside in the Globex overnight trade and this suggests that yesterday's 10am print at 964.50 is the swing point for today (also the 10am print on October 15th gap down((992-964=28/964-28=936BINGO)
Important neckline at 945 looks like a possible morning target to get the Put Call ratio back up from yesterday's .8 level and Vix from 50 back to 70
gap and go to the downside each hour would look right. 956 then 946 then 936
otherwise Turnaround Tuesday from down to up for a run at 1002.3 gap close price from october 14th Wave a high
i got short at 955 and 977 so I am losing and wanting to trade (all the while concerned that I need to let one of these shorts run for 100 points ($5000)
at a panic above 990, i sold a DEC 1100 call at 1900 (seemed like a crap price but pays if S&P under 1100)
The 30 yr bond continues to catch a filght to safety bid after its dramatic crash from 123 to 112. I am long 2 from 11327 with a 11423 sell to book +$1650
covered the Rydex Juno fund and went to cash
still have the inverse Nasdaq, Midcap 400, and Russell 2000. (sold most of the inverse S&P on Oct 10th too)
On the opening, EBS is down a tad but on a relative strength basis it is the #1 stock in the IBD survey. have orders to buy $18.34 and $19.64 on a stop
ISYS, ASEI and ICXT continue to be better than the market
bought MORN and ICUI near the close(both down)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?afam,alo,ASEI,ebs,icui,icxt,isys,morn,nuva,ung|C|O14
NDX seems to be relatively weak on the Texas Instruments news
Looking at re buying the march heating Oil contract if Oil can trade under $66
(so far the morning trade is still just under 975 which would open the way for 950 cash. Guess we really won't know until 10:40am Point in Time when the big boys decide if the market rally in the face of bad news)
so the possibility of the 250-400 point 5th wave unfolding into the new moon/monthend/employment report/election over the next 5-13 trading days
The prior high at 981 is now being overlapped to the downside in the Globex overnight trade and this suggests that yesterday's 10am print at 964.50 is the swing point for today (also the 10am print on October 15th gap down((992-964=28/964-28=936BINGO)
Important neckline at 945 looks like a possible morning target to get the Put Call ratio back up from yesterday's .8 level and Vix from 50 back to 70
gap and go to the downside each hour would look right. 956 then 946 then 936
otherwise Turnaround Tuesday from down to up for a run at 1002.3 gap close price from october 14th Wave a high
i got short at 955 and 977 so I am losing and wanting to trade (all the while concerned that I need to let one of these shorts run for 100 points ($5000)
at a panic above 990, i sold a DEC 1100 call at 1900 (seemed like a crap price but pays if S&P under 1100)
The 30 yr bond continues to catch a filght to safety bid after its dramatic crash from 123 to 112. I am long 2 from 11327 with a 11423 sell to book +$1650
covered the Rydex Juno fund and went to cash
still have the inverse Nasdaq, Midcap 400, and Russell 2000. (sold most of the inverse S&P on Oct 10th too)
On the opening, EBS is down a tad but on a relative strength basis it is the #1 stock in the IBD survey. have orders to buy $18.34 and $19.64 on a stop
ISYS, ASEI and ICXT continue to be better than the market
bought MORN and ICUI near the close(both down)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?afam,alo,ASEI,ebs,icui,icxt,isys,morn,nuva,ung|C|O14
NDX seems to be relatively weak on the Texas Instruments news
Looking at re buying the march heating Oil contract if Oil can trade under $66
(so far the morning trade is still just under 975 which would open the way for 950 cash. Guess we really won't know until 10:40am Point in Time when the big boys decide if the market rally in the face of bad news)
Monday, October 20, 2008
market continues to consolidate after huge losses
the S&P has continued to maintain its range between 1000 and 900
today the rally could have completed its push above 975
closing back under 950 will look like the retest of the lows at 850 are underway
EBS made a higher high above $17 and needs to keep building towards the point and figure target at $30 ( a double from the breakout)
today the rally could have completed its push above 975
closing back under 950 will look like the retest of the lows at 850 are underway
EBS made a higher high above $17 and needs to keep building towards the point and figure target at $30 ( a double from the breakout)
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