anyone who believes they can trade this market is nuts including me
sold 769 and bought 758 (even though i was thinking 752-754 if not lower still oh well
today i have a stiff neck from waking up at 2:30am and watching the S&P top when the FTSE turned positive. at the top i went back to sleep thinking 780 was important
when i woke up at 5:50am the S&P was trading around 775 and i thought it better hold 770 which of course it did not(at least that time i sold)
the reason to think that trending friday will ultimately be up is the fact that the market has fallen to the 2002 lows where value players have got to be thinking that stocks with safe dividends are better than bonds at historically low rates (meaning that not only do you get a crappy interest payment, your principal is sure to get whacked as long term rates have to rise(?) sometime in the next decade unless we are Japan II ( i am going to start legging back into the Rydex inverse interest rate fund in my 401(k) especially if the market starts to rally. After all the portfolio re balancing is going to require bonds to be sold and stocks to be bought)
for some reason gold blew through $760 resistance when i wasn't paying attention
hate to chase but that is how they do it in commodities. GLD is a fairly unlevered way to play and trades like a stock = to 1/10th of Gold price or $78 All time high at 102 and the gold bugs would tell you 130-150 is its real value in a world that is going to print money once again to paper over the excesses of a pseudo capitalist world.
i do believe that in the old days, Indo China bought alot of gold for jewelry as a way to store wealth. this is the time of the year for that to take place except the world economies are depressed
OIL is rolling over to the downside so DIG and UNG and others are probably going lower until the S&P turns higher INT is an interesting compay that IBD has noticed recently
LIHR up 25%; PAAS up 18%, NEM up 12% DGP up 10%; KGC up 12% EGO up 9% and DBS up 6% (as silver continues to lag)
all and all it appears at 11am that trending Friday is down and targets around 7300 and 730 are starting to look tempting (after all the point and figure chart is still drawings 'o's down after breaking support at 8145 and 8000. yikes so easy unless you make it hard especially if you just trade with the trend (unfortunately i keep thinking that this down trend is basically done (unless another 15-25% quick drop is in the cards into the monthend month beginning redemptions and bad economic news)
buying a small emini naz on the next new low since i have the short 401(k) naz fund that i want to try and time out of at the lows of the trend
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment