Wednesday, November 12, 2008

881.5/8530/1206.25 great place for a rally to begin

if it is short squeeze wednesday somehow, then selling 10am at 881.50 and buying 2 at 87x is the trade(between 10:30am and 10:45am exhaustion low and reversal over 881.5 necessary) i was thinking 871.3 was the spot we will see since i already went long at 888 against short call and long put

below 875 and it looks more like a 3rd wave down at some degree since the S&P has trapped bulls at the close by gapping down to low levels two days in a row

right now I am still thinking a wave 1 from 1008.50 to 905.5, and now a wave 3 unfolding with wave i perhaps still in progress from 962.5 headed to 851-815 over the next few days(or hours) to set up an expiration week low, then a rally back towards 940 key resistance area

914 is history and only trading easily through that resistance between 911 and 918 will make me change my mind about what is going on

on the stock front most everything is down

including oil stocks. so i am taking a position in DUG at 41 hoping for 86 again ( i had been long from 25 and sold 40 months ago and did not rebuy the dip to 33 that i saw)

i also bought a bit more EBS as $20 looks okay for now and clearly a momentum play in a down market

bought AVAV at 33 with a quick eye at the exits. however i am thinking that a president Elect obama will like how cool it is to use unmanned surveillance and killing machines

the STEM cell stocks are looking bad today except OSIR

S&P dropping below 870 looking deadly now

thinking roll down the put strike price from 840 to 815?

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