Friday, November 21, 2008

Gap and Crap or Gap and Go - Trending Friday will tell us early

and after 2pm you have to go with the move either way

down week down month Up day? - which event seems out of place - could be tight range trendless morning with fireworks this afternoon

downside targets at 773-807 were reached and over run suggesting either my count is wrong (ie ending a 3rd wave down from Aug 12) or the count is fine since a 300 point S&P move from the Obamanation high at 1003.2(1008.5 globex) matches the first leg down from 1576 - 1276 (jan low) (that is 700 is a better target than 748)

By the way if the 3 wave down move this year is some sort of correction in a long term bull market (ie big wave iv), then stocks are going to be the right asset class for the next 5 years before the final crash of civilization in 2012-2015

if you want to solve social security now would be the time to start letting folks buy stocks?

Gold nicely regaining the $760 area we will see if the price can finally be sustained DGP, EGO, KGC

sold all my bearish futures positions yesterday between 3:30pm and 4:15pm close (if only i did not touch them until the close i would have made a few grand more aaaaargh)

the crazy market yesterday was the 30 yr bond which rallied 8 points from 122 to 130 unheard of as interest rates dove under 4% for 30 years and 2% for 5 yrs and 1% for 2yr.

I wish i could better explain how buying government lease payments can give the investor a better yield for a similar risk.. However like a 5 yr bank CD, once the payments are bought by the investor, the ease of resale is limited (but not impossible) (of course only someone who has enough wealth to have a multi million dollar bond portfolio could be qualified)

(my other idea is to pay for someone's balance sheet to back stop the small possibility that the equipment is returned early and can't be resold)

Oil back over $50 and I saw a show on Bloomberg that showed heating oil has outperformed in the energy class and it is freezing on the east coast. maybe buy a call spread? since the futures is $400 per 1 cent move (geez i was so smart i was going long at 2.25 and 2 (making 10 cents) while the market trend was actually down 50 cents

DIG is a bullish ETF if you want to have easy exposure that can be sold if oil heads to $35-38 before going to $80 again. DUG is bearish

WMZ pays a high dividend and Kramer touted it

UNG still under pressure but Nat GAS has a possible bullish pattern with quick moves holding over $6.74 and 7.24

EBS better close near the highs of the week and i will be piling on or else dumping out

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,DGP,DIG,EMS,INT,KGC,wmz,QCOR,OSIR,UNG|C

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