Wednesday, November 19, 2008

seems like 835 Dec futures is the line in the sand -856-870 resistance 2pm Fed minutes

if somehow it is short squeeze wednesday, then the S&P will bottom above yesterday's low hour at 830.5 and easily clear resistance around 866 by the close

perfect for a november short squeeze to screw the put buyers

however, the S&P is clearly stuck in a much lower range then any other recent time since the October 10th recognition wave down to 888 close 837 print low !!! (we are at 840 and early in he day 11:15am is a key time with down hours following the first down hours)

for now i closed the short Nov call at a nice profit (did not want to risk a 100 point BS rally)

and am now long an emini from 839 against the Dec 840/785 Bearish spread wondering why

This morning the Dollar has been looking weak just like our political system after 5 months straight up. Could be time for a turn at year end when the really really big boys put on thei bg long term strategies

would you want to own a "piece" of the revenue stream of a Congress ready to save ever failure by bilking the "very" successful (ie folks who make more than they spend)

after 2pm today either the waterfalls below 835 will have me buying a put of some ilk or more muddled in the middle of the 840-860 inside range (830.50-869.50(888 10/10 close key))

On the Stock front, the falling dollar has boosted Oil and gold and as I mentioned yesterday the GLD and SLV ETF's are outperforming all other indices on a relative basis. the whore house is whispering yes this is the place to be for the next 3 yrs as the government spends our childrens' wealth. If so having an accumulation plan is the way to go with the DGP and DBS double bull bets used occassionally (wave 3's)

If the stock market is going to rally, than gold stocks could also be considered as a very levered play on the price of Gold. *ie just cause gold goes up does not mean the management of the gold company can take advantage of it KGC and EGO and CEF have been my favorites

EBS hanging at $20 and if the stock indices turn up than this IBD favorite is sure to pop to the $28 double from the prior low

UNG creeping up with the price of Nat Gas . However Nat Gas needs to close back over $7.30 to be in a raging bull up move and that is still away from $6.64

not much else as the markets continue to fall to lower lows on the day

Put Call opened at 1.70 (now 1.40 which is supposed to be bullish 9except when it means the big boys are loading up for a November mini crash that starts this week and ends in early december below 750 Vix index at 70 which suggests fear is rising as the global investor is continuing to understand that the "governments" can stop a natural process that the governments have prevented since the late 60's and early 70's with FIAT currency and global trade where the US sends paper to China(and Canada and the Middle East of course) and China(and the rest ) sends us real stuff that we consume

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