Friday, November 7, 2008

914/8775/1250 seem to define Trending friday

with the expected horrendous employment report the market is trying stabilize around the 914 level which is the spot where the October 29th rally began to accelerate on its way to 1000

after the worst 2 down days in history, a rally back towards the breakdown level at 937/8967/1275 would seem possible.

next week we get the Inflation reports and perhaps lower inflation will be welcomed.

However, the market has to deal with the fact that mutual funds statements are in the mail and folks may just panic and sell when they find out just how bad their wealth has shrunk.

my trading has stunk for 8 days so i am trying my best to wait

However on the stock front

EBS reported blowout earnings (up 250%) and the stock is back near the resistance at $19. ( i was trying to buy $15.xx but the dip only got to $16 :(

NL is a buy from a few days ago and I only bought it because my DAD's chemical plant was acquired by NL back in the 70's. They have changed alot since then

OSIR provides "tools' for STEM cell work (?) and is getting a cash injection from Genzyme

the other stem companies are not going straight up yet but STEM, CUR and GERN all have the ability to make a 20-50% move (either way of course)

other health care stocks that are trying to "outperform"(ie go down less) include: AFAM, NUVA, MYGN, CELG, CBST, ICUI ( i own NUVA, MYGN, CBST and ICUI)

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?ebs,nl,osir,stem,cur,gern,nuva,mygn,cbst,icui|C

I keep thinking that all the central bank money printing is going to end up in Silver and GOld instead of Bonds and the Dollar. The double bullish gold bet is DGP and silver is DBS
individual stocks include KGC, LIHR, EGO

Energy stocks are having a hard time but OIL at $60 and Heating oil at $2 seem to have stabilized the market, If the weather gets cold in the Northeast, Heating Oil will rise(right now it is going to be in the 70's where is my golf partner??)

UPL has been a big winner over the past decade so i will be watching for a buy signal
CHK, GHM,

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?dgp,dbs,lihr,kgc,ego,cef,upl,chk,ung,ghm|C

and then there are the darlings in defense that IBD keeps favoring

ASEI, AXYS, AVAV, FLIR,

and then there are the Big Boys who will be going under Obama's knife for certain - NOC GD LMT (God bless him if he can actually stop these big weapons programs in their tracks

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?asei,avav,flir,axys,icxt,undt,alog,gd,noc,lmt|C

too much duplication in our services. we do not need air forces in the Army for example

and we do not need to protect socialist Europe from Mother Russia (oops just kidding) and if China can be nice with Taiwan they can be nice with Korea(clearly a North Korea is dead as a military threat beyond South Korea)

representative government is a farce since the money is directing our congress person's vote not ideology

its all about who gets the welfare redistribution

at 11am we printed an up hour but also failed to achieve the levels at 9000 and 935

this suggests a big afternoon crash with a tuesday low below 800 as wave 5 unfolds

we will know more by 2pm. the 1st rally seems over and the GM news is looking bad for GM

however the rumors are swirling that Obama will say that his wise counselors have told him to lay off Wall Street and shoe them some love on CAP gains taxes etc.

in that case the 914 level will somehow hold through lunch and the half hour bars will start to show an upward sloping channel with a blast off move some time between 2:20pm and 3:30pm clsoing on the highs (a classic trending friday)

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