Tuesday, October 28, 2008

thank goodness for globex overnight trading- Is it Turnaround Tuesday Up to Down?

while watching the game last night, i could sense that 840 was holding after the initial run to test yesterday's low at 825.

since i was heavily short at the close i covered both short DOW at breakeven 8076

to protect the overpayment for the nov 850 put, i had to buy eminis at 840 and 850 and sold them at 868 where i reversed short

it should be interesting to see how close the day session can get to yesterday's hourly highs at 8557 CASH Dow and 884 S&P futures

if yesterday was the beginning of wave 3 down of the last wave down before a year rally ensues, then prices can not exceed the last wave 2 high around 915/DOW 8792

I mentioned yesterday that 884/8440/1208 on the futures seem to be swing numbers that are "fair value" to enough traders to keep the range +- 4% from these levels

also, next monday and tuesday i will be at the beach since the girls get a grading holiday.

the market strangely had the bears sterns low when i was in Florida in March, and Last November grading holiday was the beginning of this decline through 1390 S&P (500 points later yikes)

and of course the 2002 october 8th low that began this rally at 775 that has now almost completely retraced

in stock trading, Gold and oil seem to be making a turn. not sure how high the bounce may get but it seems worth watching closely. the ETF's to use are GLD, DGP, for gold and DIG, OIH, for oil

homeland security and defense stocks are relatively stable but need upside volume to clear the resistance from September when many set their high ISYS, ICXT, EBS, ASEI, FLIR are still in my portfolio. if the S&P is ready to rally, these will too

the 10am print on turnaround tuesday will tell us something by 2pm this afternoon

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