Wednesday, October 29, 2008

can they sqeeuze out another 100 points before Nov4 - 935 key

with the metaphor of a football game, the bears just fumbled right on the brink of a new moon meltdown

i took some more off the table in the bearish 401(k) and am thinking do more with this volatility

with 850 a distant memory (so far today) I have to think that the positive momentum from yesterday's blast off has to be carried through at least 2pm today

if it is short squeeze wednesday, then sell 10am at 934.5/9025/1288.75 and buy 10:30amish dip at 930/8990/1280 is kind of working

the next trade is a noon balloon to trap the last bulls at the top (985??or 1025)

obvious key is still the 888 close from 10/10 (884/8440/1208 were all great buys and i did get in and out a few times on the way up. in hindsight just getting in and staying in would have made a lot more sense. the message that the market has been screaming this month is that the number of players(and therefore opinions) has been drastically reduced either for bankruptcy or sensibility

only the deepest pockets are supposed to play. i believe that with the proper time frames, triggers and leverage I can make more winning shots than losing. so it goes back to money management and risk tolerance. with volatilty up the unit bet has to go down except when you are on a roll

935 again as i finish typing

noon ballon any moment now 9050 looks key on the DOW futures

oil, nat gas and gold are all up today and doing wonders to heating oil (up 6 cents=$2400), UNG up 2.5% and CEF and KGC up 6 and 10%(EGO up 9%, PAAS up 13%, SLW up 18%)

DGP is the double gold etf and up 5%
DBS is the double silver etf and up 9%

on the defense front EBS has bounced nicely on low volume from 14.5 key to 17 needs to have the stock market rally continue or a quick move down could happen easily. the message boards are active on this #1 rated IBD stock

ISYS tried a breakout yesterday over $22 and failed this is the #2 IBD stock
ASEI has me working on quotes some more
FLIR gapped up and just needs to build higher in an upward sloping pennant
AVAV has the unmanned drones guarding borders all over the world

ALO was a buyout candidate $10 higher last month

VMW reported good earnings and was trading at $120 once upon a time and needs to form a cup and handle at $40ish before that can happen- high risk in other words but should od good in up markets

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