Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Wave 5 down begins on bad earnings?

The S&P DEC Futures rallied to its highest hourly close at 990.40 since October14th 10am rallyhigh at 1030.50

so the possibility of the 250-400 point 5th wave unfolding into the new moon/monthend/employment report/election over the next 5-13 trading days

The prior high at 981 is now being overlapped to the downside in the Globex overnight trade and this suggests that yesterday's 10am print at 964.50 is the swing point for today (also the 10am print on October 15th gap down((992-964=28/964-28=936BINGO)

Important neckline at 945 looks like a possible morning target to get the Put Call ratio back up from yesterday's .8 level and Vix from 50 back to 70

gap and go to the downside each hour would look right. 956 then 946 then 936

otherwise Turnaround Tuesday from down to up for a run at 1002.3 gap close price from october 14th Wave a high

i got short at 955 and 977 so I am losing and wanting to trade (all the while concerned that I need to let one of these shorts run for 100 points ($5000)

at a panic above 990, i sold a DEC 1100 call at 1900 (seemed like a crap price but pays if S&P under 1100)

The 30 yr bond continues to catch a filght to safety bid after its dramatic crash from 123 to 112. I am long 2 from 11327 with a 11423 sell to book +$1650

covered the Rydex Juno fund and went to cash

still have the inverse Nasdaq, Midcap 400, and Russell 2000. (sold most of the inverse S&P on Oct 10th too)

On the opening, EBS is down a tad but on a relative strength basis it is the #1 stock in the IBD survey. have orders to buy $18.34 and $19.64 on a stop

ISYS, ASEI and ICXT continue to be better than the market

bought MORN and ICUI near the close(both down)

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?afam,alo,ASEI,ebs,icui,icxt,isys,morn,nuva,ung|C|O14

NDX seems to be relatively weak on the Texas Instruments news

Looking at re buying the march heating Oil contract if Oil can trade under $66


(so far the morning trade is still just under 975 which would open the way for 950 cash. Guess we really won't know until 10:40am Point in Time when the big boys decide if the market rally in the face of bad news)

No comments: