low hour at 741.8/7465/1026.75 Trending Friday was up after all

so i was feeling ok going long as soon as the announcement of the treasury secretary

of course i kept getting out and getting longagain on the way up with the last sale at 799-797

had i believed in trending friday late day high the frustration of scalping would have gone away

at the close sold a Dec 850 call and bought an emini at 794

if the action on Friday was another small 4th wave before another 75-100 points down to 725-700, then monday's globex and regular trade better stay under 819-835 hourly

key support still around 785/780/770/758/753 and 741.80 hourly


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409


otherwise a rally to much higher levels than i can even imagine is underway

in case it is "otherwise" i sold more of the inverse nazdaq 401k fund

mostly in the RUT 2000 inverse with an eye towards going all to cash by late november early december

seasonally november, december and january are strong due to tax flows and year end rebalancing that we mean demand for some stocks that are working should increase

hmm got some of that juicy move up through 755 to 775 on Treasury news

but who cares who the secretary is next spring when the world is coming to an end on Dec 31

of course it was perfect and expected and i pounced on the news

and added on the move over 758 the Trending Friday 10am print

if the market closes over 780 i will be covering short rydex funds

here are the wave 5 counts

780-740 nice rectangle so far. S&P expiration is over but the OEX and stocks are still trading until 4pm

on expiration day there is a possibility for the oex to trade from 375(or 365now) to 350 in the last few minutes of the day like a November 1991 i remember

if wave 3 is over now, then a rally phase should start to build over the next few trading hours

however, if seems like the 5th of the 3rd is still unfolding

here are the some others are interpreting this thrust down that began on Nov 5 at 2am and i was there

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1796251

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409

10 am prints define trending friday - 758/7588/1051.50

anyone who believes they can trade this market is nuts including me

sold 769 and bought 758 (even though i was thinking 752-754 if not lower still oh well

today i have a stiff neck from waking up at 2:30am and watching the S&P top when the FTSE turned positive. at the top i went back to sleep thinking 780 was important

when i woke up at 5:50am the S&P was trading around 775 and i thought it better hold 770 which of course it did not(at least that time i sold)

the reason to think that trending friday will ultimately be up is the fact that the market has fallen to the 2002 lows where value players have got to be thinking that stocks with safe dividends are better than bonds at historically low rates (meaning that not only do you get a crappy interest payment, your principal is sure to get whacked as long term rates have to rise(?) sometime in the next decade unless we are Japan II ( i am going to start legging back into the Rydex inverse interest rate fund in my 401(k) especially if the market starts to rally. After all the portfolio re balancing is going to require bonds to be sold and stocks to be bought)

for some reason gold blew through $760 resistance when i wasn't paying attention

hate to chase but that is how they do it in commodities. GLD is a fairly unlevered way to play and trades like a stock = to 1/10th of Gold price or $78 All time high at 102 and the gold bugs would tell you 130-150 is its real value in a world that is going to print money once again to paper over the excesses of a pseudo capitalist world.

i do believe that in the old days, Indo China bought alot of gold for jewelry as a way to store wealth. this is the time of the year for that to take place except the world economies are depressed

OIL is rolling over to the downside so DIG and UNG and others are probably going lower until the S&P turns higher INT is an interesting compay that IBD has noticed recently

LIHR up 25%; PAAS up 18%, NEM up 12% DGP up 10%; KGC up 12% EGO up 9% and DBS up 6% (as silver continues to lag)

all and all it appears at 11am that trending Friday is down and targets around 7300 and 730 are starting to look tempting (after all the point and figure chart is still drawings 'o's down after breaking support at 8145 and 8000. yikes so easy unless you make it hard especially if you just trade with the trend (unfortunately i keep thinking that this down trend is basically done (unless another 15-25% quick drop is in the cards into the monthend month beginning redemptions and bad economic news)

buying a small emini naz on the next new low since i have the short 401(k) naz fund that i want to try and time out of at the lows of the trend

Gap and Crap or Gap and Go - Trending Friday will tell us early

and after 2pm you have to go with the move either way

down week down month Up day? - which event seems out of place - could be tight range trendless morning with fireworks this afternoon

downside targets at 773-807 were reached and over run suggesting either my count is wrong (ie ending a 3rd wave down from Aug 12) or the count is fine since a 300 point S&P move from the Obamanation high at 1003.2(1008.5 globex) matches the first leg down from 1576 - 1276 (jan low) (that is 700 is a better target than 748)

By the way if the 3 wave down move this year is some sort of correction in a long term bull market (ie big wave iv), then stocks are going to be the right asset class for the next 5 years before the final crash of civilization in 2012-2015

if you want to solve social security now would be the time to start letting folks buy stocks?

Gold nicely regaining the $760 area we will see if the price can finally be sustained DGP, EGO, KGC

sold all my bearish futures positions yesterday between 3:30pm and 4:15pm close (if only i did not touch them until the close i would have made a few grand more aaaaargh)

the crazy market yesterday was the 30 yr bond which rallied 8 points from 122 to 130 unheard of as interest rates dove under 4% for 30 years and 2% for 5 yrs and 1% for 2yr.

I wish i could better explain how buying government lease payments can give the investor a better yield for a similar risk.. However like a 5 yr bank CD, once the payments are bought by the investor, the ease of resale is limited (but not impossible) (of course only someone who has enough wealth to have a multi million dollar bond portfolio could be qualified)

(my other idea is to pay for someone's balance sheet to back stop the small possibility that the equipment is returned early and can't be resold)

Oil back over $50 and I saw a show on Bloomberg that showed heating oil has outperformed in the energy class and it is freezing on the east coast. maybe buy a call spread? since the futures is $400 per 1 cent move (geez i was so smart i was going long at 2.25 and 2 (making 10 cents) while the market trend was actually down 50 cents

DIG is a bullish ETF if you want to have easy exposure that can be sold if oil heads to $35-38 before going to $80 again. DUG is bearish

WMZ pays a high dividend and Kramer touted it

UNG still under pressure but Nat GAS has a possible bullish pattern with quick moves holding over $6.74 and 7.24

EBS better close near the highs of the week and i will be piling on or else dumping out

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,DGP,DIG,EMS,INT,KGC,wmz,QCOR,OSIR,UNG|C

after 3pm today should be very interesting - 780/7800/1063.25 10am prints

ok

traded a future against the short 785 put for 10 points $2500 and a DOW from 7850 to 7790 for $600

at 10am the market dove on the Philly Fed report

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2008/bos1008.cfm

however the S&P has reached the target area for a wave v of 3 between 773(or735 or 600) and 807

so most of the money has been made for now and the 11am hour looks up

key resistance back at 837 low print from 10/10

the only problem is the Congress bashing of Freddie and Fannie and the Auto industry has scared the retail investor out of the market

good day to swim at lunch and come back for either straight up (or much further down a 100 point range targets 715!)

on the stock front

EBS gaps down again and we will see soon
if the market turns higher from here, then EBS should be a big buy
else sell

Nat Gas report very bearish so UNG down near its lows

Gold and Oil continue to confound the bulls however the gold Stocks may turn if the whole market turns DGP KGC and EGO

it seems as if the tech stocks are trying to provide some leadership? maybe they are just so very oversold VMW an interesting Energy saving cost saving software package near all time lows
CPSI a health care software package likely to get a boost in the Obamanation
ASEI the homeland security technology leader OSIR stem cell

once again the Dow cash is off the bottom of my graph paper

on october 10th and Oct 27th the DOW cash hourly bottomed at 8076 and 8006

yesterday 's close at 7997 and today's 10am print at 78xx clearly continues the break out of the triangle to the downside

if today is consolidation thursday, then a range should be established by 11:30am

i am thinking 7625 cash as the target which is 1400 points below he obama high at 9025
(wave 1 of wave 3 seems to be 11835 to 10434 )

decided that i had to get shorter as the S&P broke 800 so I sold a DEC 900 call for $6600

also i redeployed cash in the 401(k) into the bearish Russell 2000 since small stocks are bound to have more trouble than big companies

Philly FED report at 10am and the DOW is under 7850 (7888 was the print low and now all indices

hmm 5th wave from 918 is supposed to be 99/111 or 140 points long

well

i said i was going to be bearish from 855 to 807 and bearly accomplished the task

now that the S&P has fallen to new lows on a closing, print and hourly basis, I have to start believing that either it is the end of the 3rd wave down from the Obama election (1003.2 hrly 1008.5 print) and a rally back towards 1130 over the next few months is coming

or

this decline from 1008 has to unfold to 758 or 608

for now i got out of some shorts and hope i am right

90 minutes left and S&P below 835 and holds 819

the s&p has tried to break lower but of course it is now bouncing back over the 826 low hour posted at 2pm

i am trying to get shorter by selling november calls?? or december calls so that is another sure sign that the rally is about to take off

needless to say, the dollar rallied and gold and oil fell again

thinking it is time to quit

seems like 835 Dec futures is the line in the sand -856-870 resistance 2pm Fed minutes

if somehow it is short squeeze wednesday, then the S&P will bottom above yesterday's low hour at 830.5 and easily clear resistance around 866 by the close

perfect for a november short squeeze to screw the put buyers

however, the S&P is clearly stuck in a much lower range then any other recent time since the October 10th recognition wave down to 888 close 837 print low !!! (we are at 840 and early in he day 11:15am is a key time with down hours following the first down hours)

for now i closed the short Nov call at a nice profit (did not want to risk a 100 point BS rally)

and am now long an emini from 839 against the Dec 840/785 Bearish spread wondering why

This morning the Dollar has been looking weak just like our political system after 5 months straight up. Could be time for a turn at year end when the really really big boys put on thei bg long term strategies

would you want to own a "piece" of the revenue stream of a Congress ready to save ever failure by bilking the "very" successful (ie folks who make more than they spend)

after 2pm today either the waterfalls below 835 will have me buying a put of some ilk or more muddled in the middle of the 840-860 inside range (830.50-869.50(888 10/10 close key))

On the Stock front, the falling dollar has boosted Oil and gold and as I mentioned yesterday the GLD and SLV ETF's are outperforming all other indices on a relative basis. the whore house is whispering yes this is the place to be for the next 3 yrs as the government spends our childrens' wealth. If so having an accumulation plan is the way to go with the DGP and DBS double bull bets used occassionally (wave 3's)

If the stock market is going to rally, than gold stocks could also be considered as a very levered play on the price of Gold. *ie just cause gold goes up does not mean the management of the gold company can take advantage of it KGC and EGO and CEF have been my favorites

EBS hanging at $20 and if the stock indices turn up than this IBD favorite is sure to pop to the $28 double from the prior low

UNG creeping up with the price of Nat Gas . However Nat Gas needs to close back over $7.30 to be in a raging bull up move and that is still away from $6.64

not much else as the markets continue to fall to lower lows on the day

Put Call opened at 1.70 (now 1.40 which is supposed to be bullish 9except when it means the big boys are loading up for a November mini crash that starts this week and ends in early december below 750 Vix index at 70 which suggests fear is rising as the global investor is continuing to understand that the "governments" can stop a natural process that the governments have prevented since the late 60's and early 70's with FIAT currency and global trade where the US sends paper to China(and Canada and the Middle East of course) and China(and the rest ) sends us real stuff that we consume

late day rally dow well over 8300 but S&P at 860

still a possibility that today's late day rally is a small 'c' wave of a 2nd wave of a 3rd wave down with 847.50 and 835 and 825 futures the breakdown levels and 881 the wave 1 beginning point

resistance at the 86950 high hour yesterday lines up with a 78% retracement of the decline from 881 to 824

fortunately traded long eminis and dows futures most of the way up from 835/.8280 to 860/8440

EBS traded strong into the close and I tried to get a late day buy off but was 15 seconds late
watch tomorrow for closes over $21 to get this market leader running again

OSIR and QCOR and ABT in the bio sector

ASEI holding over $70 with a $93 Point & Figure target

over the past 30 trading sessions gold and silver have been relatively strong

DGP and DBS Are the double long ETF's to trade when Gold closes over $760 and Silver over $10.64

uh oh - 835 at 3pm standing on the edge of the abyss again

a few times this year i have had these feelings that certain price levels have released a volume of sellers

round numbers on the way down tried to hold like 1300 and 1200 then 1000 but then gave way to lower levels each time

it seems after 5 weeks sideways at 840-1000, the S&P is ready to see if there will be a volume of selling under 840

for now, i bought an emini at 835.50 against the Put spread and Nov 935 call sold at 7.4 looking under 3 on its way to 0

looking for a late day attempt to Turnaround tuesday again from this key close at 834.7 on oct 27

if yes, then another 10% lower yields 750 the area where the 2002 rally and a decent target

if no, then lets assume another slingshot higher on "good news?" with 1000 and 1200 round numbers targets for the 1st quarter rally once Obama gets his hands on the PPT for his good comparisons to FDR

1pm and finally a down hour NAZ is the weakest?? hmmm

Gee the HP news was supposed to give the NAZDAQ the shot in the arm to lead us higher but something happened in the past hour as the NDX has fallen from a high at 1160.50 to 1145 (under the 10am print at 1149.75)

the S&P has also turned negative well back under 860 while the DOW is slightly over the 8300 cash key

get ready for a third wave down if the count is right 845 cash is crucial

still a bit early for hard selling since it is lunch time but after 2pm watch out
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409

turnaround tuesday defined by 847.5-869.5/8240-8440

10 am print has so far provided a base for higher above the key 855 and 840 supports on a rectangular formation with the possibility of another fling higher in an expiration related bs move

11am up hours at 853/8340/1155 suggest that Turnaround still on hold with higher prices up as high as 888-903 still possible in the primary count

the primary count still holds out for straight down from 918 to 819-770 is ongoing for another few days with 840 cash key

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67036679]&disp=O

government hearings on TV all day and the S&P is still range bound . selling the government officials has been a successful strategy since mid september

the Put Call ratio is showing little fear even though the market is just a few percent from decade lows???

people are so stunned that the next 25% (200 S&P points yikes)down will be easy to do as the professionals are awaiting that puke out in early December when the sellers for 2008 are forced by the calendar to sell them even when they are down. new moon low and then the Employment report before the up expiration/year end rally



recent late day sell offs suggest a buyers strike and a vacuum just under the 825-840 price area

DOW 8300 seems key and S&P 860.

on the stock front

EBS keeps trying to claw back over $20-21 resistance where a pop to $28 would be no surprise
UNG creeping higher as energy prices seem to be stable in advance of the winter's advance

the Biotech/health stocks are all down with the rest of the market wih ABT, CBST, EMS, MYGN,QCOR

other consumer product companies PETS, RAH, WTR, UST where a recession won't necessarily slow these companies down

turnaround tues - expiration week rally

the globex trade overnight fell below the key 840 cash and then rallied strongly on earnings from hp

oil and gold also trying to catch a bid

sold dow futres at 8250 and bought 8130

still short a nov 935 call hoping to go to zero from 7.4

bought a dec 840 put and sold 785 put for a cost of 20(5000) at yesterday's close looking for the 5th wave down to get below 815

tried to buy eminis at 841 but too slow

if the 1st hour looks strong, thinking time to cover more 401k shorts

on the stock front the tech sector clearly will be the feature of the day

watch put call ratio to see if people are selling or buying the early rally

if the last hour stays strong then time for a rally back to 900

friday's late day sell off closes at key support 860.50-866

overnight the S&P tried to rally until the FTSE market opened

now the S&P is pressing below 855 which was a crucial level in October

the low hour is now 819.5

my primary count was looking for one more 99-150 S&P point down move starting from 918(907 hourly) to complete the 5th wave down of the 3rd wave down

if friday's late decline from 918- 850 is wave i of 5(november 4 2008) of III(September 652008) of A(Oct 2007), then today should be a ii wave with 903 a 78% retracement and884 a 50% retracement)

(so far the overnight rally from 850-875 could be 'a' of ii, then this morning's wekaness is wave 'b' of ii (and should not under cut 850 by much), then a wave 'c' up towards 888 would be a perfect pattern with 1pm high today (or 11am high tomorrow on turnaround tuesday up to down?)

current long an emini from 897 and short a Nov 935 call from 7.4. hoping for a grind higher into a close on friday around 925-940

a typical options expiration week should have a low early to trap the put buyers and then a higher move into this friday. so far this week is not acting quite right unless the S&P can sustain prices over 866-876

on the Stock front, nothing looks very good however i will continue to look for relative performers to take long shots

retail sales horrible and the market stays near support 880-897

if trending friday is somehow up, they key breakout areas around 882 better hold early and 895.5-897 resistance become support through lunch time

10am is a good time to consider a sell especially if the S&P can not get above 895.5-899

otherwise, yesterday could have been a wave iv and a lower low under 819.5/7960/1115 hourly low is the place to get bullish again for another brief rally into expiration Friday

(the DOW cash low is now 8006 with the prior low at 8076)

the overnight globex looks like a flag which has support around 888(the 10/1008 closing price) and resistance at 900ish)

a bullish breakout over 900 could eventually lead to a 45 point rally from the morning low to finish a 5 wave rally from yesterday's lows ( a perfect trending friday holds sideways and starts to creep higher into 2pm and then explodes higher in the last 90-120 minutes of trading)

i have tried a couple long side trades overnight against the short call and ended up with small losses

currently long from 893

on the stock front ASEI has been featured 2 days in a row at investors business daily

one lesson from the past, if it can't go down, it will go up

either triangle still in play 980 max pain or wave iv of 3of V

well

here is a picture of what i have been thinking is unfolding

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409



today I was at vendor presentation at Bethesda Navy Medical Center for 6 pharmacists and the Ft Detrick Army program manager who evaluates ALL the new technology going into Army pharmacies.

he said " I do not usually travel for vendor demo's"

this company has got a product that looks like a sole source lease item for sure.

next up Walter Reed Army hospital.

As I was driving back at 1:30pm, I found out that the S&P had broken the 835 and 825 lows of 2008 and then reversed back over the 855-867 swing point from October

this feels like the expiration week rally that should now grind higher all next week into an ending diagonal between 880 and 940

so i had to jump on the long side a few times with a single emini long at 855 875 892 and 900 flat at 904.5

near the end of the day i resold a naked DEC 960 call for 26.6 (closed at 32)

tomorrow the S&P has Trending Friday news at 8:30am Retail Sales and Export Prices. the news has got to be horrible and either the S&P starts down and finishes bottom tick headed for 767 or the S&P easily closes over 914-918 swing point and off to the races (937)

overnight the Globex is down 10 points with 1st support at 897 and second support 880.

overlapping 860.5 will start to look like wave v down of wave 3 is headed to 99-140 points under 913=814-773 bingo October 8, 2002 low Dan

on the stock front, EBS sold off hard but closed near $20. further rally has to be a further accumulate on this IBD favorite with $21.xx close another bullish signal
(otherwise it is a dump until $12.5-$15 base retested)


lots of stocks reversed 10% or more and tomorrow will tell the tale on the weekly charts

ABT/CBST/OSIR/QCOM/MYGN are my favorite bio/health stocks that need to get going or dump

ASEI getting good press and looking like abreakout over $70 could lead to $90 (although i have to be moderate in this position)

clearly they turned the Oil stocks for at least one day - UPL and UNG are my favorites but not that excited about oil quite yet. WMZ pays a nice dividend and is a Kramer favorite. LG seems really strong but do not know much else

we need to have a heating oil shortage first with a deep freeze on the Northeast. so far that has not happened

same thing with Gold stocks. not sure if i trust the move yet but KGC and EGO are ones i have bought in the past (at much higher prices and thankfully sold)

INT made a huge leap higher after catching my attention a few days ago.
ZEP???

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,abt,CBST,osir,INT,mygn,LG,QCOR,asei,upl|E

881.5/8530/1206.25 great place for a rally to begin

if it is short squeeze wednesday somehow, then selling 10am at 881.50 and buying 2 at 87x is the trade(between 10:30am and 10:45am exhaustion low and reversal over 881.5 necessary) i was thinking 871.3 was the spot we will see since i already went long at 888 against short call and long put

below 875 and it looks more like a 3rd wave down at some degree since the S&P has trapped bulls at the close by gapping down to low levels two days in a row

right now I am still thinking a wave 1 from 1008.50 to 905.5, and now a wave 3 unfolding with wave i perhaps still in progress from 962.5 headed to 851-815 over the next few days(or hours) to set up an expiration week low, then a rally back towards 940 key resistance area

914 is history and only trading easily through that resistance between 911 and 918 will make me change my mind about what is going on

on the stock front most everything is down

including oil stocks. so i am taking a position in DUG at 41 hoping for 86 again ( i had been long from 25 and sold 40 months ago and did not rebuy the dip to 33 that i saw)

i also bought a bit more EBS as $20 looks okay for now and clearly a momentum play in a down market

bought AVAV at 33 with a quick eye at the exits. however i am thinking that a president Elect obama will like how cool it is to use unmanned surveillance and killing machines

the STEM cell stocks are looking bad today except OSIR

S&P dropping below 870 looking deadly now

thinking roll down the put strike price from 840 to 815?

the Clash - Should I stay or should I go now - the day traders dilemma

got stopped out of the short dow at 8570 to book a nice profit (and now the DOW back over the 10am print at 8600(while the S&P is slightly shy of 891.75 and NDX at 1217.50 )

so for all the morning drama. they are having a hard time budging the S&P far from 888 (4 points either side for a few half hours)

after 2pm we will surely know the answer. acceleration to 834 hourly or back into the triangle

flat the DOW and short 2 calls and long 1 put looking good on any dive under the 2008 low at 825


Darling you gotta let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
If you say that you are mine
I'll be here 'til the end of time
So you got to let know
Should I stay or should I go?

Always tease tease tease
Siempre - coqetiando y enganyando
You're happy when I'm on my knees
Me arrodilla y estas feliz
One day is fine, next is black
Un dias bien el otro negro
So if you want me off your back
Al rededar en tu espalda
Well come on and let me know
Me tienes que desir
Should I Stay or should I go?
Me debo ir o que darme

Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
An' if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know

891.8/8600/1217.75 define turnaround tuesday down to up - wave iii of 1 of V of A??

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812

trading segments in the S&P seem to be about 37 points long, so this morning's decline from 927 globex at 921.5 hourly could be over. (in te old days, getting 10-15 point segments was all there was)

However, a 3rd wave with a gap opening should be given the benefit of the doubt with a possibility that wave 1 was 1003.8 to 904.5(1008.5-897) and then wave 3 could be a multiple of 99 or 111. from the high at 962.5 yesterday morning's globex trap. (940 hourly high could have to subtract 22.5 from the targets below)

1.382 times 111(99)= 962.5-153.4(138)= 809.1(824.5)

1.5 times 111(99) = 962.5-166.5(150) = 796(812)

1.618 times 111(99) = 962.5-179.6(160)=752.9(802.5)

we will see. for the time being i sold a Nov 940 call on yeterday for 51 and a Nov 980 call last week at 16 and bought a Nov 840 put for 14.

late yesterday I sold a dow future at 8840 and looking to take profits around 8500

seeing as how beared up I am, I have to be aware that the alternate count would have the S&P still in a triangle with another pop to 975 possible and 1080 improbably

on the stock front, pretty much everything is down a few percent after a nice rally yesterday

however GERN is holding over $4.5 and EBS just under $20. CBST looking like an add over $27
OSIR looking like an add over $20

UNG was mentioned on Fast Money and of course is down today with Oil and Nat Gas both falling. However Nat Gas over $7 and then over $7.3 will look bullish indeed

ASEI up $7 on good earnings oh well i sold it at $63 a few days ago sincel i could not chance it after Obama won. this high at $70+- could be it. if it keeps rallying i will be accumulating again

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?GERN,OSIR,STEM,CUR,EBS,QCOR,MYGN,CBST,ung,asei|C


at 11am it looks like the hourly print will be sideways with a slight under cut of 888 (which happens to be the closing futures price on 10/10/2008 when many declared a capitulation bottom

hold short and scalp on weakness under 891(?) - with 855 a wonderful priceto buy in October

Gap and crap from 940 at 10am to 914 at 1pm

pretty severe down move off of the overnight globex high trade at 955-960.

there are a number of arguments that the S&P continues to be in a range of 900-1000 since the low close at 888 on October 10th (834.70 on oct 29th new moon low)

914 came up as a target on the way down off of the election rally (and the S&P made hourly lows at 907.5 and 904.5 (dow cash 8752 and 8695 Notice the DOW is outperforming today)

so i am trying to wait (not very successfully since i am still trading) for the S&P to let me know that either it is an acceleration move under 800 or perhaps a 2nd leg up towards 1065 before the acceleration under 800

bought eminis at 914 and 911.50(Friday's's 3pm hourly)

on the Stock front, the Stem cell stocks -STEM, GERN and CUR are up nicely but off of their highs. it would seem like the S&P needs to rally to get these things to start going alot higher for a few days (ie 50-100% returns is the goal)

OSIR going sideways to lower but that does not bother me yet since OSIR has a real business unlike STEM, GERN and CUR

ASTM is an even bigger POS trading at $0.68 and looking like $1 is in the cards

CBSY, QCOR and ICUI all higher and MYGN ready to explode on volume over $72 (base on base)

EBS opened higher and fell unde $20 buy point. be careful and add slowly over $20/21/22 with $28 possible if the S&P is rallying big time (doubtful)



Although Oil is well off of its highs, Natural Gas remains firmly higher and UNG is looking okay with an add point over $33. Another good looking chart is LG

Gold off of its highs too but a few stocks hanging in there KGC, EGO

Obama effect - Stem cell research good, Oil exploration bad

over the weekend, news reports suggest Pres elect Obama will cancel a number of Bush's executive orders

top of the list is the ban on government funds for embryonic stem cell research

as a result GERN, OSIR, STEM, CUR are all indicated 20%+ higher on the open

Other stocks in the Healthcare/biotech sectors that continue to show relative strength include EBS at an all time high, QCOR, MYGN, CBST

A High Tech play in Healthcare is CPSI who provides IT to hospitals

The S&P and DOW are up overnight as China announced a stimulus package. It seems like OIL and GOLD and Natural GAS are also liking the news

of course the major indices are still consolidating the horrible losses in October and many prognosticators suggest another decline of 15-25% is still likely before a real bottom is in place

UNG and CHK are ways to play the Nat Gas move especially on a close over $7.35

DBS, DGP are the double gold and silver ETF and a strong close over $11 and $770 would seem to be the breakout levels for the preceious metals


http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?gern,osir,stem,cur,ebs,qcor,mygn,cbst,cpsi,ing|C

not very funny short squeeze right to the stated target

937/9000/1290

and a beautiful lift off just around 3:30pm low

tried to buy 8830 and instead sold 8930

sold a 980 call at the close against a dec 1000 call

bought EBS at 20.35 and plan on chasing it higher up to 24 with a 28 target

gold stocks seemed firm signaling relative strength in a dangerous world?

we will see what the weekend brings

will Obama name a treasury secretary

will anything work

will Pelosi throw more tax dollars down the sht hole

stayed tuned

in the meantime some stocks seem to be going up on accumulation (ie fear has subsided a little) while others still look like crap

put the line in the water and after you catch it, keep or throw back.

somedays are better for fishing a good catch than others. learn how to tell early in the day

914/8775/1250 seem to define Trending friday

with the expected horrendous employment report the market is trying stabilize around the 914 level which is the spot where the October 29th rally began to accelerate on its way to 1000

after the worst 2 down days in history, a rally back towards the breakdown level at 937/8967/1275 would seem possible.

next week we get the Inflation reports and perhaps lower inflation will be welcomed.

However, the market has to deal with the fact that mutual funds statements are in the mail and folks may just panic and sell when they find out just how bad their wealth has shrunk.

my trading has stunk for 8 days so i am trying my best to wait

However on the stock front

EBS reported blowout earnings (up 250%) and the stock is back near the resistance at $19. ( i was trying to buy $15.xx but the dip only got to $16 :(

NL is a buy from a few days ago and I only bought it because my DAD's chemical plant was acquired by NL back in the 70's. They have changed alot since then

OSIR provides "tools' for STEM cell work (?) and is getting a cash injection from Genzyme

the other stem companies are not going straight up yet but STEM, CUR and GERN all have the ability to make a 20-50% move (either way of course)

other health care stocks that are trying to "outperform"(ie go down less) include: AFAM, NUVA, MYGN, CELG, CBST, ICUI ( i own NUVA, MYGN, CBST and ICUI)

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?ebs,nl,osir,stem,cur,gern,nuva,mygn,cbst,icui|C

I keep thinking that all the central bank money printing is going to end up in Silver and GOld instead of Bonds and the Dollar. The double bullish gold bet is DGP and silver is DBS
individual stocks include KGC, LIHR, EGO

Energy stocks are having a hard time but OIL at $60 and Heating oil at $2 seem to have stabilized the market, If the weather gets cold in the Northeast, Heating Oil will rise(right now it is going to be in the 70's where is my golf partner??)

UPL has been a big winner over the past decade so i will be watching for a buy signal
CHK, GHM,

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?dgp,dbs,lihr,kgc,ego,cef,upl,chk,ung,ghm|C

and then there are the darlings in defense that IBD keeps favoring

ASEI, AXYS, AVAV, FLIR,

and then there are the Big Boys who will be going under Obama's knife for certain - NOC GD LMT (God bless him if he can actually stop these big weapons programs in their tracks

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?asei,avav,flir,axys,icxt,undt,alog,gd,noc,lmt|C

too much duplication in our services. we do not need air forces in the Army for example

and we do not need to protect socialist Europe from Mother Russia (oops just kidding) and if China can be nice with Taiwan they can be nice with Korea(clearly a North Korea is dead as a military threat beyond South Korea)

representative government is a farce since the money is directing our congress person's vote not ideology

its all about who gets the welfare redistribution

at 11am we printed an up hour but also failed to achieve the levels at 9000 and 935

this suggests a big afternoon crash with a tuesday low below 800 as wave 5 unfolds

we will know more by 2pm. the 1st rally seems over and the GM news is looking bad for GM

however the rumors are swirling that Obama will say that his wise counselors have told him to lay off Wall Street and shoe them some love on CAP gains taxes etc.

in that case the 914 level will somehow hold through lunch and the half hour bars will start to show an upward sloping channel with a blast off move some time between 2:20pm and 3:30pm clsoing on the highs (a classic trending friday)

3pm and the breakunder 996 has resulted in a 36 point decline from 1003

that length has been a standard length of an S&P move prior to the October volatility which had moves of 50 to 100 points intra day

3pm is up slightly and 985 looks like a possible place to go short if the bounce can get going into 3:40pm

otherwise 943-948(or 914-900) here we come to complete 5 waves down from 2am this morning at 1008.5

CBST looking good along with MYGN, ICUI and QCOR

UNG looks like a possible island reversal over the past few daily bars CHK a fast money favorite

UPL is one of the all time best oil related stocks and has been beaten back quite a ways

DBS to double silver play is acting relatively strong (poor man's gold??) and the holiday season coming around the world

CCJ and SQM are uranium and other metals miners looking way oversold

EBS going back to the buy zone around 15ish??

10am Gap down to 991/9455/1359.75 - will the decline continue?

seems like the market wants to go higher still

since the S&P was not able to gap and hold under yesterday's lows at 996.6, I will be waiting for a few more hourly prints to figure out if this is short squeeze wednesday or the beginning of the 5th wave crash (11am print looks sightly higher at sideways at 994/9485/1359 and under 996.5 key)

on the stock front, bought MYGN at the $69.25 open and will buy more above $72.22
bought QCOR and CBST yesterday on their breakouts

IBD featured Biotech stocks including NUVA and EBS.

CUR and OSIR are acting okay in the Stem cell business but not STEM and GERN

Natural gas and heating oil have interesting bottoming patterns in place and UNG rallied nicely yesterday (although i am still underwater until $33 is exceeded)


http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?mygn,qcor,cbst,NUVA,ebs,cur,osir,stem,gern,ung|C

back form the beach - High turning point?? Watch Friday's employment

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808

these chart ideas mirror mine so long as upside volume does not pick up for too long now that the election uncertainty is gone

I am reminded that the best down moves in 2008 began after bad employment reports

(February, June September)

so until then, we have a chance that tomorrow is Short Squeeze Wednesday with a light volume rally into 10am that will be sold. then consolidation thursday. so i do not want to get too short too early Upside targets are 1030 and 1060ish

if not we are headed back to 914-888 where the breakout retest would be complete

the first signs of a down move would be an hourly print and hold under 996 (Tuesday's 3 pm hour) and then 983 where the last breakout occurred on the hourly charts

seems like there are stocks breaking out in health care. MYGN in particular looks interesting and i am buying the open
the Stem cell stocks i bought are all looking not so hot but maybe tomorrow CUR, CBST, STEM, GERN, OSIR

I would not want to be long defense stocks like LMT, GD, NOC, CAI, SAIC(?), etc

notice that EBS, AVAV, pulled back while FLIR, ASEI, wnet sideways

all these big boondoogle programs are going to be on the chopping block ( i hope)

looking forward to volatility to start again as the market tries to figure our just who is Barack Obama

so far just some great speaches and a campaign team who used community organizing principles to reach out to the masses to fundraise and vote. unlike the elitist John Kerry, Obama connected with those people who would not get off their butts and vote last time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania etc which made the difference