could that run to 977 be it or do we need 992

hmmm

rode some longs up from 961 brekout hourly to 973 hookem above the prior high

back to flat in the futures wanting to go swimming but no time to leave the screen on the last day of the worst month in history

on the stock front, AFAM, ISYS keep going (even though i sold)

IPHS, IPI recover from oversold and thinking dump at the end of the day along with the gold stocks too CEF and KGC both up from where i bought them

FLIR, EBS, ASEI, AXYS, AVAV, even ICXT and ALOG keep chugging higher in the seasonal strong period


got crushed in medicat technology could they possible bounce before eyar end

Gap and Go on trending friday 952/9155/1319.5 10 am print is the definition

thought there was a trading band with 948.5 and 956.5 hourly prints on the way down yesterday

and so far the S&P is stuck right there

I reminded myself that the blast off rally from 855 to 940 has basically been kept intact

so either a breakout or a fakeout move followed by a trending move is the expected pattern

the problem right now is that i am not sure if we spike down then rally sideways to higher towards 1000 or 1065 for a few more weeks; or whether they spike it up today all the way to 1000? or more and then crash it when i am at the beach on monday, tuesday(especially if the exit polls show an obama landslide)

for now trying to just stay short the DOW future from yesterday's closing high hour at 9226 which was a Cash hourly print a few days ago. if wave 3 of 5 down of A is next, then i want to get real short

on the stock front AFAM and AVAV featured in IBD
sold AFAM on the gap up (and $2 points from the high) to book a profit

sold EBS yesterday and it is still higher

ASEI trying to chug forward ahead of the november earnings report (think i do not want to own it into the election anyways)

selling ISYS above $24 for a nice profit too

the IBD rankings have EBS, AFAM and ISYS the top three and I owned them all in advance of that ranking . i will buy them back if the general market indices want to go higher since the IBD community can be a self fulfilling prophecy in the short run

FLIR is a new position that needs to keep clearing $31

thinking sell gold stocks since no real traction

however the natural resources stocks that were bought include IPI IPHS and SQM and seem to be relatively strong into month end

the first two are phosphate and way oversold and the other is Brazilian oversold miner(?)

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?sqm,UNG,Avav,kgc,ipi,ISYS,FLIR,EBS,Afam,iphs|C


by the way the 30 year bond is now 10 full points below the high it made last month wow

the yield curve is steepening as the markets decide not to lend 30 year money at 4% anymore
(of course i always assume that it is Bill Gross at PIMCO pulling the strings in the 30yr. I imagine he shorted the hell out of them at 3.75% and is a big buyer at 5%)

consolidation thursday 985 to 885??- Negative GDP can't be good news

looks like a triangle forming around 955 cash

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409

Put Call seems like too many bulls

breaking down late today will kick off the 3rd of 5th (or 1st of 5th) wave down

however there are higher targets around 985 and 1002.3 gap close. Trading back over the 956.50/9170/1338 10am prints will be the first sign that higher is first then lower is later

this rally could be mutual fund manager's attempt to jam their new relative strength favorites higher along with the stocks that have fallen the furthest. then Monday and Tuesday I am at the beach so a good time to get to cash for the next 9 week cycle. volatility is going to continue

DOW 9257 cash hourly then 9500 the 9600 are still resistance and until the market easily holds over these levels I have to believe that there is better than a 50% chance of breaking the October lows after Obama is elected

on the Stock front

ASEI above $60 needs news on the earnings front
ISYS clearly broken above $22.3 means $25 likely
FLIR continuing from way oversold
EBS needs to hold over $17 or dump and reload later
AVAV at $35 resistance and looks like an expolsive up move underway

KGC was up 20% yesterday and up another 3% today - be quick to the trigger
CEF not quite as strong

Gold needs to blow through $785 (prior low) sooner rather than later or watch out below again

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?avav,UNG,ASEI,KGC,DGP,ISYS,FLIR,EBS,AVAV,VMW|C

stocks to watch

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?ALO,UNG,ASEI,KGC,DGP,ISYS,FLIR,EBS,AVAV,VMW|C

can they sqeeuze out another 100 points before Nov4 - 935 key

with the metaphor of a football game, the bears just fumbled right on the brink of a new moon meltdown

i took some more off the table in the bearish 401(k) and am thinking do more with this volatility

with 850 a distant memory (so far today) I have to think that the positive momentum from yesterday's blast off has to be carried through at least 2pm today

if it is short squeeze wednesday, then sell 10am at 934.5/9025/1288.75 and buy 10:30amish dip at 930/8990/1280 is kind of working

the next trade is a noon balloon to trap the last bulls at the top (985??or 1025)

obvious key is still the 888 close from 10/10 (884/8440/1208 were all great buys and i did get in and out a few times on the way up. in hindsight just getting in and staying in would have made a lot more sense. the message that the market has been screaming this month is that the number of players(and therefore opinions) has been drastically reduced either for bankruptcy or sensibility

only the deepest pockets are supposed to play. i believe that with the proper time frames, triggers and leverage I can make more winning shots than losing. so it goes back to money management and risk tolerance. with volatilty up the unit bet has to go down except when you are on a roll

935 again as i finish typing

noon ballon any moment now 9050 looks key on the DOW futures

oil, nat gas and gold are all up today and doing wonders to heating oil (up 6 cents=$2400), UNG up 2.5% and CEF and KGC up 6 and 10%(EGO up 9%, PAAS up 13%, SLW up 18%)

DGP is the double gold etf and up 5%
DBS is the double silver etf and up 9%

on the defense front EBS has bounced nicely on low volume from 14.5 key to 17 needs to have the stock market rally continue or a quick move down could happen easily. the message boards are active on this #1 rated IBD stock

ISYS tried a breakout yesterday over $22 and failed this is the #2 IBD stock
ASEI has me working on quotes some more
FLIR gapped up and just needs to build higher in an upward sloping pennant
AVAV has the unmanned drones guarding borders all over the world

ALO was a buyout candidate $10 higher last month

VMW reported good earnings and was trading at $120 once upon a time and needs to form a cup and handle at $40ish before that can happen- high risk in other words but should od good in up markets

low hour at 850.5/8210/1180.75 will be key for the lunch time screw job

the Put Call ratio is way up today even though the market is up

that is telling me that the last wave down is being anticipated or hedged by the majority of options traders.

in other words, it won't happen, or it won't happen yet

a spike just under the lows at 825 futures into the close could set up a short squeeze wednesday as the FED cuts interest rates at 2:15pm tomorrow and declares that inflation is dead for the forseeable future

after all, the baby boomers just got their wake up call that they had better find some buyers for all their stocks and houses soon because they just took a big hit in the past year

one result is that rallies in home prices and stock prices will be dampened with this baby boomer demand until the US economy lets in more immigrants and creates more jobs at the same time

just traded up to 862 and now short from 856 looking for 851 quick scalp

watching oil and gold for a sign that the smart money knows that monetary inflation is just beginning and the bubble for "stuff" which began in 2003 is going to explode higher as economic chaos is sure to breed wars over stuff

in the defense sector ISYS moving through $21 is a good start for a run back over $25
in the gold sector the initial rally in gold stocks has faded

nothing else moving much

10am prints at key resistance 868/8350/1200

well the market tried again to achieve the magnet at 884/8440/1208 and did before the 10am news was issued

now the market is on the key 854 low hour from 10/10 which lots of folks have been calling the BOTTOM for a few days (840 cash)

rode the emini short down from 868 t0 860 and looking to buy the upcross through 860 if it comes

otherwise the hourly charts are looking like a Gap and crap turnaround tuesday is being unfolded with the last hour a possible spike to the "bottom"

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67036679]&disp=O

thank goodness for globex overnight trading- Is it Turnaround Tuesday Up to Down?

while watching the game last night, i could sense that 840 was holding after the initial run to test yesterday's low at 825.

since i was heavily short at the close i covered both short DOW at breakeven 8076

to protect the overpayment for the nov 850 put, i had to buy eminis at 840 and 850 and sold them at 868 where i reversed short

it should be interesting to see how close the day session can get to yesterday's hourly highs at 8557 CASH Dow and 884 S&P futures

if yesterday was the beginning of wave 3 down of the last wave down before a year rally ensues, then prices can not exceed the last wave 2 high around 915/DOW 8792

I mentioned yesterday that 884/8440/1208 on the futures seem to be swing numbers that are "fair value" to enough traders to keep the range +- 4% from these levels

also, next monday and tuesday i will be at the beach since the girls get a grading holiday.

the market strangely had the bears sterns low when i was in Florida in March, and Last November grading holiday was the beginning of this decline through 1390 S&P (500 points later yikes)

and of course the 2002 october 8th low that began this rally at 775 that has now almost completely retraced

in stock trading, Gold and oil seem to be making a turn. not sure how high the bounce may get but it seems worth watching closely. the ETF's to use are GLD, DGP, for gold and DIG, OIH, for oil

homeland security and defense stocks are relatively stable but need upside volume to clear the resistance from September when many set their high ISYS, ICXT, EBS, ASEI, FLIR are still in my portfolio. if the S&P is ready to rally, these will too

the 10am print on turnaround tuesday will tell us something by 2pm this afternoon

crash alert or the bottom? - 854 breaks hard late and 8076 teeters on the edge

they have just taken apart any monday rally attempt again and this has created a setup for a crash over the next few days. the Hourly lows are being taken out into the close and the daily chart looks like a big down day all of a sudder

(an alternative count would have today's low at 825 near the end of a decline from 991 and just a mild spike down under 820 could be the bottom of the 5th wave down)

can't believe how i can trade from good to bad in minutes

shorted the DOW break at 8076 and bought a Nov 850 put and sold a Nov 985 call at the close

all of this activity protends some large action.

still thinking when to pull more money out of the bearish 401 k positions

gold and oil were looking good and then faded again

not sure what earnings reports are on tap

monthend is yearend for some mutual funds (?) and lower prices seems to keep bring more selling instead of less

so far the market resists crashing though 854/8076

funny how all the overnight hoopla turned out to be nothing again

are they lulling us to sleep right before the crash?

new moon, FED meeting announcement, GDP report, election, unemployment

so far the hourly S&P and DOW futures seem to be attracted to 884/8440/1208 and are swinging wildly either side by 30/250/50 point ranges

late day sell off could lead to the overnight disaster.

trade what you see not what you want

and that is easier to do if you are FLAT your positions when you are "seeing" the pattern

last hour of trading begins with the major averages giving up their gains

we will see

short november and december calls hoping that the S&P continues to fall into 780-735 target (outside chance at 664)

854 breaks and so does 837 in overnight trading- Wave 5 continues

S&p currently trading at the lowest levels since 2002 in the US and Nikkei since 1982 in Japan. Can you imagine

however the DOW is relatively stronger as 8076 is the low hour in futures and the DOW futures are only at 8000

if wave i of wave 5 was from 993 to 856, then wave iii is 917.25 to 780?

hourly range stuck between 868 and 888(10/10 closing price)

took a quick short trade in the emini NDX and DOW near the end of the day and covered too early for a small redemption to the horrible morning trading

sold a NOV 965 call at the close and bought an emini at 864
sold a DEC 1000 call earlier in the day on a panic

interesting that the S&P and DOW made lower lows than yesterday but not lower lows than 10/10 panic

not sure what it means but i will be Golf and dinner for the beginning of the Sunday trade at 6pm

Meant to mention that GOLD hit a speed line at $685 this morning and closed above the $705 area that I was going to buy at 3am.

bought CEF and KGC near the end of the day just in case GOLD has made a low only $240 (25%) from the $920 resistance (where i was trying to go long jeesh)

EBS made a nice recovery and I added on the dip under $14.4 early today (got filled at $13,91 nice)

if the S&P needs to finally complete the 5th wave down, a low in the Sunday overnight at 800 would look right

otherwise could be that the 5th wave is done at 860 hourly low at 2pm and a larger 4th wave to 1100 is ready to start

(i think month end and then employment report Friday still mean more selling next week)

hard to believe that 10am 966 and noon 976 What volatility??

LOL

not sure what to think but sold a DEC 1000 call for 22 and finally made a day trade up from 974 and 978 to 986

yesterday i had 884/8440/1208 as key swing points and now we are back below them all (although the NDX seems a little stronger)

have to make an airport run during the 2pm-3:30pm afternoon witching hour

did Oil actually bottom today at $63 we will see. any "real" interruption of supply will be the catalyst for higher prices. otherwise OPEC may be able to slow the descent by giving a lower side support to the long term players who are thinking $35-50 is possible for the final low

everyone bought the open(except me) will they sell 10am?

854 hourly low from 10/10 still safe and yesterday's low at 868 looks like the target for now

above 875 and who knows how high up might be

at least 900 could happen

woke up at 2:30am and stayed up which has me zigging and zagging at just the wrong times

thinking wait until after 1pm to get a real sense of today's action

but first the 10am print will give us a clue

Globex dives on Japan and England slow down - 854 hourly looks like toast

wow

can not believe that the roll over that began around 9pm has continued to the lowest prices since 10/10 low

if trending friday is down, it could be the crash day

otherwise i have to believe that after 45 minutes of selling, the Plunge Protection Team will be there to try to get the DOW back to the key levels around 8440

woke up at 2:30am and tried to swing trade the down move. had a couple good trades and a few bad ones to lose $1000

now i look trapped and busy with Anderson Funding and picking up Susie from the airport

1pm low hour not a short squeeze thursday after all

covered short at 900975 at 895

reshorted 883 and looking for 874

the testimony on the Hill is very abusive of these "public servants"

Congress had plenty of warning

bought a slug of EBS at 15.43

buying more at 14ish

if it is short squeeze thursday sell 10am and buy 2 at 10:30am

ok

just took another nice $500 profit out of the emini at 89775 (10am sell BINGO) and shorted the 30yr bond at 116245

testimony by Greenspan etc to find blame

watch 10:30am 874 then 854 are the hourly lows for 2008

some websites are suggesting that now is a 9 month cycle low (and the time frames for the 1929 and 1987 crash bottoms)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705

If it is short squeeze thursday then 888 will hold at 10:30am

overnight the Globex rallied right to 922 amazing and then fell back to 883 (which happens to be 78% of a rally from 972.50 to 922.5)

i went long at 885 and sold 893

then short at 904 and out at 900 for a quick 600 since 8:30am

still short 2 Nov 1125 from 6 going to 0 against 1 long Nove 1075 from 11 (already paid for) and short a DEC 1100 from 19 trying to by 5.xx

if yesterday's low was a wave 'd' of 4, then another quick pop back above 964 is headed our way

if yesterday's low as wave i or 5 of BIG A(since Oct 2007), then a 3 wave rally back towards 980 or 935 before we finally take out 800 on the S&P

DOW has support at 8300 and resistance at 8800(then 9000)

on the stock front EBS made a low early at $16.5ish yesterday and another low under that could be a spot to start rebuilding a position for the eventual run above 22

white powder found at banks and NY times has to put a spot light on the mnopoly producer of the only vaccine in the world


ASEI needs to close on volume over $59-60 and then we will see if $75 can be seen or even $100

ICXT trading around $8 needs to clear $9 on volume to add

ISYS tading around $20 needs to clear $22.25 on volume to add


(just bought 888 with stops under the 880 and profits at 897)

late day 3pm squeeze fails above 977/9200 sell low close

thinking that the rally at 3pm failed just under the 981 key hourly print and seems to be rolling over into the close

the low hours are 956/9060/129850

shorting the break under 1291 on the emini NDX in anticipation of the AAPL disaster?

EBS will probably be a rebuy on any gap down under 16.50ish (flat above the last buy at $18.35)

ICUI hanging in there

lots of quoting to ASEI

AFAM showing relative strength

UNG trying again to turn up after losing 50% of its value YIKES may add on strength over $33

Noon time screw job would suggest a few swings 977-957 nice range so far

the hourly charts have continued to slide after the Bull trap ws sprung late yesterday above 988 (981 hourly)

on the hourly charts the over lap in the DOW at 9087 and S&P under 964 suggests that the swing down has further to go (a few weeks ago a 100 point range occurred meaning 891 low ahead)

took off an emini at 958 and sold the bonds way too soon at 11423 (went to the 11508 1st retracement )

(Dow 9000 has to be a battleground for some a little time)

went short an emini NDX at 1335 and now looking to buy 1266 ( a 100 point range trade)

sold EBS at 18.88 and will no be forced to rebuild a position at higher prices (maybe)

10am prints 977/9202/1338 turnaround tuesday or trillion dollar tuesday

the opening range continues to lean towards the idea that squeezing higher is still more likely than crashing under recent support at 946 hourly

if this is a down day, the selling should intensify after 11am.

after all the longs are trapped by 13 S&P points . trading under 981 hourly would look more bearish too

further hourly lows are the way all the declines traded with a late day swoosh of 50 S&P points or so

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705

EBS above $19 and my stops are raised to book profits on all positions can always start rebuilding long at 15-17 if that happens or at 20-22 if that happens

ASEI above $59 is a P&F buy

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3080705

Wave 5 down begins on bad earnings?

The S&P DEC Futures rallied to its highest hourly close at 990.40 since October14th 10am rallyhigh at 1030.50

so the possibility of the 250-400 point 5th wave unfolding into the new moon/monthend/employment report/election over the next 5-13 trading days

The prior high at 981 is now being overlapped to the downside in the Globex overnight trade and this suggests that yesterday's 10am print at 964.50 is the swing point for today (also the 10am print on October 15th gap down((992-964=28/964-28=936BINGO)

Important neckline at 945 looks like a possible morning target to get the Put Call ratio back up from yesterday's .8 level and Vix from 50 back to 70

gap and go to the downside each hour would look right. 956 then 946 then 936

otherwise Turnaround Tuesday from down to up for a run at 1002.3 gap close price from october 14th Wave a high

i got short at 955 and 977 so I am losing and wanting to trade (all the while concerned that I need to let one of these shorts run for 100 points ($5000)

at a panic above 990, i sold a DEC 1100 call at 1900 (seemed like a crap price but pays if S&P under 1100)

The 30 yr bond continues to catch a filght to safety bid after its dramatic crash from 123 to 112. I am long 2 from 11327 with a 11423 sell to book +$1650

covered the Rydex Juno fund and went to cash

still have the inverse Nasdaq, Midcap 400, and Russell 2000. (sold most of the inverse S&P on Oct 10th too)

On the opening, EBS is down a tad but on a relative strength basis it is the #1 stock in the IBD survey. have orders to buy $18.34 and $19.64 on a stop

ISYS, ASEI and ICXT continue to be better than the market

bought MORN and ICUI near the close(both down)

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?afam,alo,ASEI,ebs,icui,icxt,isys,morn,nuva,ung|C|O14

NDX seems to be relatively weak on the Texas Instruments news

Looking at re buying the march heating Oil contract if Oil can trade under $66


(so far the morning trade is still just under 975 which would open the way for 950 cash. Guess we really won't know until 10:40am Point in Time when the big boys decide if the market rally in the face of bad news)

market continues to consolidate after huge losses

the S&P has continued to maintain its range between 1000 and 900

today the rally could have completed its push above 975

closing back under 950 will look like the retest of the lows at 850 are underway

EBS made a higher high above $17 and needs to keep building towards the point and figure target at $30 ( a double from the breakout)