after 3pm today should be very interesting - 780/7800/1063.25 10am prints

ok

traded a future against the short 785 put for 10 points $2500 and a DOW from 7850 to 7790 for $600

at 10am the market dove on the Philly Fed report

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2008/bos1008.cfm

however the S&P has reached the target area for a wave v of 3 between 773(or735 or 600) and 807

so most of the money has been made for now and the 11am hour looks up

key resistance back at 837 low print from 10/10

the only problem is the Congress bashing of Freddie and Fannie and the Auto industry has scared the retail investor out of the market

good day to swim at lunch and come back for either straight up (or much further down a 100 point range targets 715!)

on the stock front

EBS gaps down again and we will see soon
if the market turns higher from here, then EBS should be a big buy
else sell

Nat Gas report very bearish so UNG down near its lows

Gold and Oil continue to confound the bulls however the gold Stocks may turn if the whole market turns DGP KGC and EGO

it seems as if the tech stocks are trying to provide some leadership? maybe they are just so very oversold VMW an interesting Energy saving cost saving software package near all time lows
CPSI a health care software package likely to get a boost in the Obamanation
ASEI the homeland security technology leader OSIR stem cell

once again the Dow cash is off the bottom of my graph paper

on october 10th and Oct 27th the DOW cash hourly bottomed at 8076 and 8006

yesterday 's close at 7997 and today's 10am print at 78xx clearly continues the break out of the triangle to the downside

if today is consolidation thursday, then a range should be established by 11:30am

i am thinking 7625 cash as the target which is 1400 points below he obama high at 9025
(wave 1 of wave 3 seems to be 11835 to 10434 )

decided that i had to get shorter as the S&P broke 800 so I sold a DEC 900 call for $6600

also i redeployed cash in the 401(k) into the bearish Russell 2000 since small stocks are bound to have more trouble than big companies

Philly FED report at 10am and the DOW is under 7850 (7888 was the print low and now all indices

hmm 5th wave from 918 is supposed to be 99/111 or 140 points long

well

i said i was going to be bearish from 855 to 807 and bearly accomplished the task

now that the S&P has fallen to new lows on a closing, print and hourly basis, I have to start believing that either it is the end of the 3rd wave down from the Obama election (1003.2 hrly 1008.5 print) and a rally back towards 1130 over the next few months is coming

or

this decline from 1008 has to unfold to 758 or 608

for now i got out of some shorts and hope i am right

90 minutes left and S&P below 835 and holds 819

the s&p has tried to break lower but of course it is now bouncing back over the 826 low hour posted at 2pm

i am trying to get shorter by selling november calls?? or december calls so that is another sure sign that the rally is about to take off

needless to say, the dollar rallied and gold and oil fell again

thinking it is time to quit

seems like 835 Dec futures is the line in the sand -856-870 resistance 2pm Fed minutes

if somehow it is short squeeze wednesday, then the S&P will bottom above yesterday's low hour at 830.5 and easily clear resistance around 866 by the close

perfect for a november short squeeze to screw the put buyers

however, the S&P is clearly stuck in a much lower range then any other recent time since the October 10th recognition wave down to 888 close 837 print low !!! (we are at 840 and early in he day 11:15am is a key time with down hours following the first down hours)

for now i closed the short Nov call at a nice profit (did not want to risk a 100 point BS rally)

and am now long an emini from 839 against the Dec 840/785 Bearish spread wondering why

This morning the Dollar has been looking weak just like our political system after 5 months straight up. Could be time for a turn at year end when the really really big boys put on thei bg long term strategies

would you want to own a "piece" of the revenue stream of a Congress ready to save ever failure by bilking the "very" successful (ie folks who make more than they spend)

after 2pm today either the waterfalls below 835 will have me buying a put of some ilk or more muddled in the middle of the 840-860 inside range (830.50-869.50(888 10/10 close key))

On the Stock front, the falling dollar has boosted Oil and gold and as I mentioned yesterday the GLD and SLV ETF's are outperforming all other indices on a relative basis. the whore house is whispering yes this is the place to be for the next 3 yrs as the government spends our childrens' wealth. If so having an accumulation plan is the way to go with the DGP and DBS double bull bets used occassionally (wave 3's)

If the stock market is going to rally, than gold stocks could also be considered as a very levered play on the price of Gold. *ie just cause gold goes up does not mean the management of the gold company can take advantage of it KGC and EGO and CEF have been my favorites

EBS hanging at $20 and if the stock indices turn up than this IBD favorite is sure to pop to the $28 double from the prior low

UNG creeping up with the price of Nat Gas . However Nat Gas needs to close back over $7.30 to be in a raging bull up move and that is still away from $6.64

not much else as the markets continue to fall to lower lows on the day

Put Call opened at 1.70 (now 1.40 which is supposed to be bullish 9except when it means the big boys are loading up for a November mini crash that starts this week and ends in early december below 750 Vix index at 70 which suggests fear is rising as the global investor is continuing to understand that the "governments" can stop a natural process that the governments have prevented since the late 60's and early 70's with FIAT currency and global trade where the US sends paper to China(and Canada and the Middle East of course) and China(and the rest ) sends us real stuff that we consume

late day rally dow well over 8300 but S&P at 860

still a possibility that today's late day rally is a small 'c' wave of a 2nd wave of a 3rd wave down with 847.50 and 835 and 825 futures the breakdown levels and 881 the wave 1 beginning point

resistance at the 86950 high hour yesterday lines up with a 78% retracement of the decline from 881 to 824

fortunately traded long eminis and dows futures most of the way up from 835/.8280 to 860/8440

EBS traded strong into the close and I tried to get a late day buy off but was 15 seconds late
watch tomorrow for closes over $21 to get this market leader running again

OSIR and QCOR and ABT in the bio sector

ASEI holding over $70 with a $93 Point & Figure target

over the past 30 trading sessions gold and silver have been relatively strong

DGP and DBS Are the double long ETF's to trade when Gold closes over $760 and Silver over $10.64

uh oh - 835 at 3pm standing on the edge of the abyss again

a few times this year i have had these feelings that certain price levels have released a volume of sellers

round numbers on the way down tried to hold like 1300 and 1200 then 1000 but then gave way to lower levels each time

it seems after 5 weeks sideways at 840-1000, the S&P is ready to see if there will be a volume of selling under 840

for now, i bought an emini at 835.50 against the Put spread and Nov 935 call sold at 7.4 looking under 3 on its way to 0

looking for a late day attempt to Turnaround tuesday again from this key close at 834.7 on oct 27

if yes, then another 10% lower yields 750 the area where the 2002 rally and a decent target

if no, then lets assume another slingshot higher on "good news?" with 1000 and 1200 round numbers targets for the 1st quarter rally once Obama gets his hands on the PPT for his good comparisons to FDR