DOW cash 8149 is the line in the sand
10am hourly futures prints at 828.5/8210/1108 will define trending friday
seems recently down gaps are almost always followed by down hours
sold more call premium(870 and 900) and looking for he S&P to test 800 at the minimum assuming 813 breaks this morning
shorted an emini Naz at 1105.75
downside targets could be 775/7800/1050
Friday, December 5, 2008
trending friday ? 840-825 hourly range
do not be fooled by early strength
if trending friday is down, the hourly charts will stay under 840 and break under 825 after 2pm and finish bottom tick
778 is a possible target if somehow the 2008 low was 739 on November
if trending friday is down, the hourly charts will stay under 840 and break under 825 after 2pm and finish bottom tick
778 is a possible target if somehow the 2008 low was 739 on November
Saturday, November 22, 2008
low hour at 741.8/7465/1026.75 Trending Friday was up after all
so i was feeling ok going long as soon as the announcement of the treasury secretary
of course i kept getting out and getting longagain on the way up with the last sale at 799-797
had i believed in trending friday late day high the frustration of scalping would have gone away
at the close sold a Dec 850 call and bought an emini at 794
if the action on Friday was another small 4th wave before another 75-100 points down to 725-700, then monday's globex and regular trade better stay under 819-835 hourly
key support still around 785/780/770/758/753 and 741.80 hourly
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
otherwise a rally to much higher levels than i can even imagine is underway
in case it is "otherwise" i sold more of the inverse nazdaq 401k fund
mostly in the RUT 2000 inverse with an eye towards going all to cash by late november early december
seasonally november, december and january are strong due to tax flows and year end rebalancing that we mean demand for some stocks that are working should increase
of course i kept getting out and getting longagain on the way up with the last sale at 799-797
had i believed in trending friday late day high the frustration of scalping would have gone away
at the close sold a Dec 850 call and bought an emini at 794
if the action on Friday was another small 4th wave before another 75-100 points down to 725-700, then monday's globex and regular trade better stay under 819-835 hourly
key support still around 785/780/770/758/753 and 741.80 hourly
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
otherwise a rally to much higher levels than i can even imagine is underway
in case it is "otherwise" i sold more of the inverse nazdaq 401k fund
mostly in the RUT 2000 inverse with an eye towards going all to cash by late november early december
seasonally november, december and january are strong due to tax flows and year end rebalancing that we mean demand for some stocks that are working should increase
Friday, November 21, 2008
hmm got some of that juicy move up through 755 to 775 on Treasury news
but who cares who the secretary is next spring when the world is coming to an end on Dec 31
of course it was perfect and expected and i pounced on the news
and added on the move over 758 the Trending Friday 10am print
if the market closes over 780 i will be covering short rydex funds
of course it was perfect and expected and i pounced on the news
and added on the move over 758 the Trending Friday 10am print
if the market closes over 780 i will be covering short rydex funds
here are the wave 5 counts
780-740 nice rectangle so far. S&P expiration is over but the OEX and stocks are still trading until 4pm
on expiration day there is a possibility for the oex to trade from 375(or 365now) to 350 in the last few minutes of the day like a November 1991 i remember
if wave 3 is over now, then a rally phase should start to build over the next few trading hours
however, if seems like the 5th of the 3rd is still unfolding
here are the some others are interpreting this thrust down that began on Nov 5 at 2am and i was there
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1796251
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
on expiration day there is a possibility for the oex to trade from 375(or 365now) to 350 in the last few minutes of the day like a November 1991 i remember
if wave 3 is over now, then a rally phase should start to build over the next few trading hours
however, if seems like the 5th of the 3rd is still unfolding
here are the some others are interpreting this thrust down that began on Nov 5 at 2am and i was there
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1796251
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409
10 am prints define trending friday - 758/7588/1051.50
anyone who believes they can trade this market is nuts including me
sold 769 and bought 758 (even though i was thinking 752-754 if not lower still oh well
today i have a stiff neck from waking up at 2:30am and watching the S&P top when the FTSE turned positive. at the top i went back to sleep thinking 780 was important
when i woke up at 5:50am the S&P was trading around 775 and i thought it better hold 770 which of course it did not(at least that time i sold)
the reason to think that trending friday will ultimately be up is the fact that the market has fallen to the 2002 lows where value players have got to be thinking that stocks with safe dividends are better than bonds at historically low rates (meaning that not only do you get a crappy interest payment, your principal is sure to get whacked as long term rates have to rise(?) sometime in the next decade unless we are Japan II ( i am going to start legging back into the Rydex inverse interest rate fund in my 401(k) especially if the market starts to rally. After all the portfolio re balancing is going to require bonds to be sold and stocks to be bought)
for some reason gold blew through $760 resistance when i wasn't paying attention
hate to chase but that is how they do it in commodities. GLD is a fairly unlevered way to play and trades like a stock = to 1/10th of Gold price or $78 All time high at 102 and the gold bugs would tell you 130-150 is its real value in a world that is going to print money once again to paper over the excesses of a pseudo capitalist world.
i do believe that in the old days, Indo China bought alot of gold for jewelry as a way to store wealth. this is the time of the year for that to take place except the world economies are depressed
OIL is rolling over to the downside so DIG and UNG and others are probably going lower until the S&P turns higher INT is an interesting compay that IBD has noticed recently
LIHR up 25%; PAAS up 18%, NEM up 12% DGP up 10%; KGC up 12% EGO up 9% and DBS up 6% (as silver continues to lag)
all and all it appears at 11am that trending Friday is down and targets around 7300 and 730 are starting to look tempting (after all the point and figure chart is still drawings 'o's down after breaking support at 8145 and 8000. yikes so easy unless you make it hard especially if you just trade with the trend (unfortunately i keep thinking that this down trend is basically done (unless another 15-25% quick drop is in the cards into the monthend month beginning redemptions and bad economic news)
buying a small emini naz on the next new low since i have the short 401(k) naz fund that i want to try and time out of at the lows of the trend
sold 769 and bought 758 (even though i was thinking 752-754 if not lower still oh well
today i have a stiff neck from waking up at 2:30am and watching the S&P top when the FTSE turned positive. at the top i went back to sleep thinking 780 was important
when i woke up at 5:50am the S&P was trading around 775 and i thought it better hold 770 which of course it did not(at least that time i sold)
the reason to think that trending friday will ultimately be up is the fact that the market has fallen to the 2002 lows where value players have got to be thinking that stocks with safe dividends are better than bonds at historically low rates (meaning that not only do you get a crappy interest payment, your principal is sure to get whacked as long term rates have to rise(?) sometime in the next decade unless we are Japan II ( i am going to start legging back into the Rydex inverse interest rate fund in my 401(k) especially if the market starts to rally. After all the portfolio re balancing is going to require bonds to be sold and stocks to be bought)
for some reason gold blew through $760 resistance when i wasn't paying attention
hate to chase but that is how they do it in commodities. GLD is a fairly unlevered way to play and trades like a stock = to 1/10th of Gold price or $78 All time high at 102 and the gold bugs would tell you 130-150 is its real value in a world that is going to print money once again to paper over the excesses of a pseudo capitalist world.
i do believe that in the old days, Indo China bought alot of gold for jewelry as a way to store wealth. this is the time of the year for that to take place except the world economies are depressed
OIL is rolling over to the downside so DIG and UNG and others are probably going lower until the S&P turns higher INT is an interesting compay that IBD has noticed recently
LIHR up 25%; PAAS up 18%, NEM up 12% DGP up 10%; KGC up 12% EGO up 9% and DBS up 6% (as silver continues to lag)
all and all it appears at 11am that trending Friday is down and targets around 7300 and 730 are starting to look tempting (after all the point and figure chart is still drawings 'o's down after breaking support at 8145 and 8000. yikes so easy unless you make it hard especially if you just trade with the trend (unfortunately i keep thinking that this down trend is basically done (unless another 15-25% quick drop is in the cards into the monthend month beginning redemptions and bad economic news)
buying a small emini naz on the next new low since i have the short 401(k) naz fund that i want to try and time out of at the lows of the trend
Gap and Crap or Gap and Go - Trending Friday will tell us early
and after 2pm you have to go with the move either way
down week down month Up day? - which event seems out of place - could be tight range trendless morning with fireworks this afternoon
downside targets at 773-807 were reached and over run suggesting either my count is wrong (ie ending a 3rd wave down from Aug 12) or the count is fine since a 300 point S&P move from the Obamanation high at 1003.2(1008.5 globex) matches the first leg down from 1576 - 1276 (jan low) (that is 700 is a better target than 748)
By the way if the 3 wave down move this year is some sort of correction in a long term bull market (ie big wave iv), then stocks are going to be the right asset class for the next 5 years before the final crash of civilization in 2012-2015
if you want to solve social security now would be the time to start letting folks buy stocks?
Gold nicely regaining the $760 area we will see if the price can finally be sustained DGP, EGO, KGC
sold all my bearish futures positions yesterday between 3:30pm and 4:15pm close (if only i did not touch them until the close i would have made a few grand more aaaaargh)
the crazy market yesterday was the 30 yr bond which rallied 8 points from 122 to 130 unheard of as interest rates dove under 4% for 30 years and 2% for 5 yrs and 1% for 2yr.
I wish i could better explain how buying government lease payments can give the investor a better yield for a similar risk.. However like a 5 yr bank CD, once the payments are bought by the investor, the ease of resale is limited (but not impossible) (of course only someone who has enough wealth to have a multi million dollar bond portfolio could be qualified)
(my other idea is to pay for someone's balance sheet to back stop the small possibility that the equipment is returned early and can't be resold)
Oil back over $50 and I saw a show on Bloomberg that showed heating oil has outperformed in the energy class and it is freezing on the east coast. maybe buy a call spread? since the futures is $400 per 1 cent move (geez i was so smart i was going long at 2.25 and 2 (making 10 cents) while the market trend was actually down 50 cents
DIG is a bullish ETF if you want to have easy exposure that can be sold if oil heads to $35-38 before going to $80 again. DUG is bearish
WMZ pays a high dividend and Kramer touted it
UNG still under pressure but Nat GAS has a possible bullish pattern with quick moves holding over $6.74 and 7.24
EBS better close near the highs of the week and i will be piling on or else dumping out
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,DGP,DIG,EMS,INT,KGC,wmz,QCOR,OSIR,UNG|C
down week down month Up day? - which event seems out of place - could be tight range trendless morning with fireworks this afternoon
downside targets at 773-807 were reached and over run suggesting either my count is wrong (ie ending a 3rd wave down from Aug 12) or the count is fine since a 300 point S&P move from the Obamanation high at 1003.2(1008.5 globex) matches the first leg down from 1576 - 1276 (jan low) (that is 700 is a better target than 748)
By the way if the 3 wave down move this year is some sort of correction in a long term bull market (ie big wave iv), then stocks are going to be the right asset class for the next 5 years before the final crash of civilization in 2012-2015
if you want to solve social security now would be the time to start letting folks buy stocks?
Gold nicely regaining the $760 area we will see if the price can finally be sustained DGP, EGO, KGC
sold all my bearish futures positions yesterday between 3:30pm and 4:15pm close (if only i did not touch them until the close i would have made a few grand more aaaaargh)
the crazy market yesterday was the 30 yr bond which rallied 8 points from 122 to 130 unheard of as interest rates dove under 4% for 30 years and 2% for 5 yrs and 1% for 2yr.
I wish i could better explain how buying government lease payments can give the investor a better yield for a similar risk.. However like a 5 yr bank CD, once the payments are bought by the investor, the ease of resale is limited (but not impossible) (of course only someone who has enough wealth to have a multi million dollar bond portfolio could be qualified)
(my other idea is to pay for someone's balance sheet to back stop the small possibility that the equipment is returned early and can't be resold)
Oil back over $50 and I saw a show on Bloomberg that showed heating oil has outperformed in the energy class and it is freezing on the east coast. maybe buy a call spread? since the futures is $400 per 1 cent move (geez i was so smart i was going long at 2.25 and 2 (making 10 cents) while the market trend was actually down 50 cents
DIG is a bullish ETF if you want to have easy exposure that can be sold if oil heads to $35-38 before going to $80 again. DUG is bearish
WMZ pays a high dividend and Kramer touted it
UNG still under pressure but Nat GAS has a possible bullish pattern with quick moves holding over $6.74 and 7.24
EBS better close near the highs of the week and i will be piling on or else dumping out
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EBS,DGP,DIG,EMS,INT,KGC,wmz,QCOR,OSIR,UNG|C
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)